UFC 290: Volkanovski vs Rodriguez 7/8

Last weekend's UFC Fight Night at the Apex went above and beyond expectations. Six of the twelve fights on the card ended inside the distance with many of them being unexpected upsets in highly entertaining fights. We now look forward to the biggest card of the year, UFC 290, which takes place during International Fight Week at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card is littered with great talent headlined by two championship fights in both the flyweight and featherweight divisions.  

Kirk vs Ribovics 155 lbs

Kicking off the card is a lightweight bout between young prospects looking to make a name in the division. This bout was originally scheduled for UFC 285 in March but because Kirk pulled out, it was put off until UFC 290. Kamuela "The Jawaiian" Kirk enters the contest with an 11-5 professional record, going 1-1 in his two UFC fights. Kirk is a switch-stance fighter with good grappling skills but lacks experience, especially against high-level competition. He formerly fought in LFA but got the chance to make his UFC debut on short notice in June 2021 after fighting less than a month prior at LFA 107. He was given the tough task of fighting Makwan Amirkhani but passed it with flying colors, earning a unanimous decision victory in a fight that was much more closely contested than the scorecards indicated. He has a lot to prove in this fight against a fighter with even less experience than him in Esteban "El Gringo" Ribovics. Ribovics has only 12 professional fights to his name, boasting an 11-1 record with his previous fight being his UFC debut against Loik Radzhabov who beat him by unanimous decision. Despite the loss, Esteban had some great moments in the fight showing off his impressive striking. He landed 26 more significant strikes than his opponent in the fight and even scored a knockdown on Loik in the second round. While he had a strong performance in the striking department in the bout, he was taken down a total of 11 times which is highly concerning as he enters this fight with a strong grappler who will likely try to take him down. I expect Estebans striking to be far superior to that of Kirk's, however, if Kirk can get the fight to the ground early and often, he may have the edge. At the end of the day, I hope to see improvements in the wrestling department for Ribovics considering he has proven to have above-average striking for the lightweight division. 

Pick: Esteban Ribovics

Confidence Level: Medium

Ross vs Aguilar 125 lbs

The next bout on the early prelims comes between Australian Shannon Ross and Mexican Jesus Aguilar. Ross enters this fight looking to put an end to his two-fight losing skid. He struggled in his DWCS fight in 2022 against Vinicius Salvador but it was not until after the fight that Ross got a CT scan that revealed he had suffered a ruptured appendix before the fight. Because it had gone untreated, he also developed blood poising and was in serious medical danger. He spent five days in the hospital recovering from these injuries. The UFC decided to give him another shot because they felt it was unfair he could not fight on Contender Series healthy. At UFC 284, they gave him a tough matchup against Kleydson Rodriguez, a promising young flyweight. Rodriguez finished the fight just one minute into the first round with a TKO victory. Now Ross gets to fight a less experienced and lower-level fighter in Jesus Aguilar who has only ten professional fights in his career holding an 8-2 record. There is no question that Ross is tough, as most would have pulled out of the DWCS fight if they were in a great deal of pain before it, but Ross elected to not make excuses and even lasted almost a full two rounds before Salvador was able to put him out. As far as his strengths in the octagon, Shannon is a primary striker, fighting with a fast pace and throwing a lot of unorthodox strikes, switching stances often which has helped him greatly in many departments, especially defending takedowns. Contrary to Ross's fight style is that of Jesus Aguilar's. Jesus prides himself on his wrestling and submission ability, finishing six of his eight professional wins by submission with the other two coming by decision. Aguilar is yet to show many wrinkles to his striking, leading many to question how he will fair against tough boxers with great takedown defense, which is exactly what this fight matchup gives us. Australians tend to be extremely good at defending takedowns, as we recently saw Kai Kara-France do against Amir Albazi and Israel Adesanya against some of the best wrestlers in the world. With that in mind, Aguilar will need to be able to hang with Ross on the feet if he is unable to secure takedowns. Surprisingly, Jesus has never lost a fight by decision or been knocked out, his two career losses have actually come by way of submission which leads me to believe he has spent most of the time in his career on the mat, and not actually striking with his opponents. If Ross is able to defend takedowns like I think he will, I see no reason why he can not out-point the Mexican to a decision victory or maybe even a knockout. 

Pick: Shannon Ross

Confidence Level: Low

Saaiman vs Mitchell 135 lbs

The next bout should be a fun high-level bantamweight bout between two surging prospects both on 4+ fight win streaks. Cameron Saaiman is only 22 years old and fights out of team CIT alongside teammate Dricus Du Plessis who will be fighting later on in the night. Despite Saaiman's young age, he has proven to be a problem for opponents, sporting an 8-0 professional record with two of those wins coming in the UFC. His opponent, Terrence Mitchell holds an impressive 15-2 record and will be making his UFC debut Saturday. Saaiman has extremely impressive boxing skills, doing his best work at a distance from his opponents where he can attack in a variety of ways, including knees, kicks, or his powerful left hand. Saaiman's biggest problem in the octagon thus far is his constant fouls, resulting in point deductions on the scorecards for him. In both of his UFC bouts, he has committed multiple fouls, raising concerns about his cleanliness as a fighter. When he is not committing fouls, however, he is an incredible prospect with the potential to be a future champion someday. His skills in the octagon are incredible without question, but he needs to control his fouls to be a problem against the top contenders in the division. Terrence Mitchell is a UFC newcomer, having competed on TUF all the way back in 2016. On the show, he notoriously called out Kai Kara-France and had a lot of smack talk to say leading up to their fight. Despite a big advantage in height and reach, France quickly knocked him out just 30 seconds into the bout. Since then, Mitchell has put together a 4-fight win streak that has granted him a call to the UFC, holding a 15-2 professional record. There are a lot of unknowns with Mitchell, as he has fought in only Alaskan promotions raising questions on the skill level of opponents. What we do know is Terrence will have a considerable height and reach advantage in this fight, being a tall fighter for the bantamweight division. He has won by both submission and knockout, making him dangerous from every position, but Saaiman is just too advanced for the Alaskan fighter and I expect to see him cruise to a victory in this one. 

Pick: Cameron Saaiman

Confidence Level: High

Petrino vs Prachnio 205 lbs

A bout between impressive light heavyweights is up next as undefeated Brazilian Vitor Petrino squares off against Poland's Marcin Prachnio. Vitor is 8-0 as a professional, with his last win coming in his UFC debut against Anton Turkalj. He has shown impressive stand-up skills with tons of power in his hands. He has the ability to knock anyone out with a clean shot, but needs to work on his wrestling and grappling to be a real problem in the 205 lbs division. He shoots for multiple takedowns in most of his fights but does not do much work on the ground with it. He seems to use his offensive wrestling as a way to take a break when he is tired and regain his energy rather than using it to put his opponent away. He has a lot of work to do with his defensive wrestling, as he is only defending 66% of attempts against him and was taken down 5 times in his UFC debut. His opponent Marcin Prachnio is a pure striker. In his seven UFC fights, he has put together a 3-4 record. In those fights, he has yet to record even a single takedown, making it clear his primary game plan going into his fights is to knock out his opponent. That will be a tough plan to execute against a high-level striker like Vitor Petrino. Prachnio has faced a higher level of competition as he has competed against top-ranked Magomed Ankalaev, Khalil Rountree, and Philipe Lins. His only win of those contests came against Khalil Rountree by unanimous decision. Being that Prachnio does not have much of a ground game, it makes it difficult to pick him to win this fight, especially considering Petrino is averaging over four takedowns per fifteen minutes. That being said, I think Petrino should have the advantage in this fight in most areas, making him my pick to win.           

Pick: Vitor Petrino

Confidence Level: Low

Taira vs Chairez 130 lbs

The headliner fight of the UFC early prelims for UFC 290 is a catchweight bout between flyweight prospect Tatsuro Taira and Edgar Chairez. Tatsuro Taira was originally scheduled to fight just a couple weeks ago but had his bout canceled due to his opponent missing weight. Luckily for Taira, the UFC gave him a quick turnaround fight against UFC debutant Edgar Chairez. Taira has tons of skills with the potential to be a future champion one day. He has top-level jiu-jitsu and scrambling to go along with more than qualified striking abilities. He holds a 13-0 professional record(3-0 UFC) with his last two wins coming by way of submission. His striking accuracy and defense are off the charts, as he lands 64% of the strikes he throws and only gets hit with 1.05 significant strikes per minute. In all of his previous fights, Taira has held an advantage wherever the fight took place. His last two fights show he is most comfortable on the ground, where he excels at scrambling and submitting his opponents, but his striking has allowed him to collect three knockout wins in his career also, making him extremely difficult for opponents to figure out. He gets the opportunity to take on Edgar Chairez in this bout who is currently on a two-fight win streak. It is worth noting this fight will take place at a 130 lbs catchweight because as previously stated, Taira was originally scheduled to fight just two weeks back and even made weight for that fight, so it would not be fair to make him cut a lot of weight again. Edgar Chairez's last loss came nearly a year ago at DWCS to the previously undefeated Clayton Carpenter. Edgar had an impressive first round in the fight but struggled to defend Carpenter's takedowns in the latter rounds giving Carpenter a unanimous decision win and earning him a UFC contract. Chairez fought hard to get back to this spot, winning two straight fights just four months apart. Now he gets the opportunity to really make a name for himself in the UFC if he can pull off the upset against the highly touted Tatsuro Taira. To do so, he will need to defend himself from all of Taira's takedown attempts in the first round and hope that does enough to tire Tatsuro as the fight enters the second and third rounds. Edgar can not attempt to scramble or allow Taira to take him down, as Tatsuro's abilities when the fight gets to the mat are far more advanced. That being said, Edgar Chairez has an extremely difficult fight ahead of him, but pulling off a win can completely change his career.     

Pick: Tatsuro Taira

Confidence Level: High

Crute vs Menifield 205 lbs

The first fight of the preliminary card is a banger between light heavyweight contenders Jimmy Crute and Alonzo Menifield. These fighters faced off against each other at UFC 284 in February in a fight that ended by a majority draw. It was a high-action first round with each fighter going right to their strengths. For Crute, he recorded four takedowns but still lost the round on all three judges' scorecards because of Menifield's significant strike advantage as well as Crute's inability to do much damage with the takedowns he secured. The second round was much of the same but much closer as Crute locked in two submission attempts that seemed to be close to finishing Menifield. Still unfazed, Alonzo landed another knockdown in that round likely securing him the win and putting him up 20-18 on most scorecards with just one round to go. In the third round, Crute took over racking up nearly four minutes of control time, clearly giving him the advantage in the round. But in that round Alonzo Menifield committed a foul for grabbing the fence, resulting in referee Marc Goddard deducting a point from him. In the end, two judges scored the contest 28-28 while one believed Crute took the victory winning 29-27. This majority draw decision gave the UFC a good reason to have these guys face off again as the first bout was highly entertaining. It is clear what each fighter's strengths are and where they will want the fight to play out, but only time will tell who will come out victorious. Crute obviously does his best work on the ground as we saw in their first bout, getting six takedowns on his twelve attempts. Menifield has a considerable striking and power advantage, knocking Crute down twice and nearly doubling his significant strike count in the contest. Where I believe we will see the biggest difference this time around is the age gap between fighters. Menifield is nearly 36 years old and as he continues to age, I only see him slowing down and his skills getting worse. Jimmy Crute, however, is only 27 years old and is likely more motivated to continue to improve, especially after coming off two losses prior to the draw with Menifield. I believe we will see a slower Menifield while Crute will be much more technical with his takedown attempts, knowing when to shoot and when not to. I also believe he will be better in the stand-up, causing more problems for Alonzo and not allowing him to knock him down twice like he did in their previous bout. 

Pick: Jimmy Crute

Confidence Level: Low

Jauregui vs Gomes 115 lbs

The first women's bout of the night comes in the strawweight division between undefeated prospect Yazmin Jauregui and Denise Gomes. Both fighters are 24 years of age or younger, making both women prime prospects in the division for years to come. The undefeated Mexican Yazmin Jauregui comes into the fight with a 10-0 (2-0 UFC) professional record having shown incredibly impressive boxing skills. The orthodox stance fighter won her UFC debut against Iasmin Lucindo in August 2022, outstriking her opponent in every round and defending two takedown attempts against her that let her cruise to a unanimous decision victory. She was then given a tougher task in Istela Nunes who likely won the first round against her, defending three of Jauregui's takedown attempts and knocking her down once in the round. The second round was a different story, as Yazmin looked like a different fighter, more than tripling her significant strike count in the round and knocking her down twice before putting her away with punches to the head from the guard at the end of the round. While Jauregui looked like her dominant self in the second round, it is worth noting that we finally saw her look human in the octagon in that first round. It was an impressive comeback victory for the Mexican nonetheless to keep her perfect record intact. She will face a tough competitor in Denise Gomes who sports an 8-2 (1-1 UFC) professional record and competed in a number of different promotions before finally receiving a call to compete on DWCS 2022. After earning a UFC contract she was given a stiff opponent for her UFC debut in Loma Lookboonmee who defeated Gomes by unanimous decision. Gomes incorporates many martial arts in her fight game, having decent wrestling and jiu-jitsu but excelling in her striking power which has enabled her to earn five KO/TKO victories in her career. Being both fighters are primary strikers, it will be interesting to see who shoots for the first takedown and where the fight will play out. Yazmin currently holds a 100% takedown defense rate but has only two against her making it a very small sample size. I expect the winner of this fight to see a sizable jump in competition while the loser does not have much to complain about, as she will still be young with a lot of career fights ahead of her.

Pick: Yazmin Jauregui

Confidence Level: Low

Della Maddalena vs Harrell 170 lbs *canceled

The welterweight division houses the next fight between prospect Jack Della Maddalena who jumped on the scene in 2022 and has finished all four of his opponents in the first round since and UFC newcomer Josiah Harrell who will be making his UFC debut. Sean Brady was originally scheduled to take on the surging Della Maddalena but pulled out just a week before the fight leaving the UFC to find a replacement for him. The replacement they found is the undefeated Josiah Harrell who was set to compete on DWCS in just about a month but has forgone that bout to fill in for this fight. Jack Della Maddalena has been a problem for opponents since making his UFC debut against Pete Rodriguez in 2022. He knocked out Pete in just under three minutes and has not looked back since, seemingly finishing all of his fights with ease in the first round. His latest fight was his biggest test when he took on the long and dangerous Randy Brown. Many doubted JDM would be able to compete with contenders in the division like Brown, but JDM quickly quieted those people by showing a new wrinkle to his game, submitting Randy with a rear naked choke in just over two minutes. Interestingly enough, JDM lost his first two fights as a professional when he competed in Eternal MMA but has not lost since, holding a 14-2 professional record. The Australian is dangerous in all areas, but his power and slick boxing skills have been his most utilized weapons in his career thus far, which makes sense considering opponents have had much trouble taking him down in the past. JDM appears to be weakest when the fight reaches the ground, which is where Josiah will have to take it if he wants any chance of coming out with a victory. There are not many if any fighters that can stand and bang with JDM as his skills are far superior to anyone he has been in the octagon with. For Josiah Harrell, it is promising to hear his background is in wrestling, as that is what he will need to use in this fight. We do not know much about Josiah Harrell, as he only has seven professional fights but one thing noteworthy is he competed at lightweight in the past and will now be making the jump to welterweight for this fight. If Harrell wants to win this fight, he can not mess around on the feet, or else he will get caught and finished quickly, he must rather have a calculated approach that involves wrestling, scrambling, and putting JDM in uncomfortable positions he is not used to fighting from. Easier said than done but if he can do these things, he will have a slim chance to leave the octagon with a win. 

Pick: Jack Della Maddalena

Confidence Level: High 

Lawler vs Price 170 lbs

The welterweight division plays host to a bout between scrappers Robbie Lawler and Niko Price. Lawler has already announced he will be retiring from MMA following this fight, after a long and successful career dating back to 2001. He seeks his 30th career win in this fight, currently holding a 29-16 professional record. It seems his age is catching up to him, as he has lost five of his last six bouts, being finished in two of them. Despite a recent stretch of losses, he has put together an impressive, hall of fame-worthy career having first fought in the UFC at UFC 37 and now ending his career at UFC 290. As a fighter, Lawler likes to stand and bang with his opponent, fearing no one head to head on the feet. He lands 3.83 significant strikes per minute throughout his UFC career but his most impressive stat is his striking defense, at 59%. This is one of many reasons he has been able to prolong his career as long as he has. Lawler stands in a Southpaw stance and does not utilize his wrestling a great deal but has done a good job defending takedowns in his career, as he has fought some of the best wrestlers in the world in that time. His opponent, Niko Price is a frantic, high pace striker who has proven to have a lot of power in his hands. He holds a 15-6 (7-6 UFC) professional record with two no contests to his name. Price started his career 10-0 but has struggled significantly since coming to the UFC and facing top competition. He and his opponent Lawler put on wildly entertaining fights, being unafraid to take a beating to give one. Having three losses in his last four fights, it is no question Niko Price is fighting for more than just a win bonus on Saturday as his UFC career could be on the line with a loss. That being said, I expect to see the best version of him in this fight. One concern I have for Price in this fight is going up against a Southpaw in Lawler. Price's last fight against a Southpaw came in 2019 against Geoff Neal. In that fight, Price did record a knockdown, but was significantly outstruck in the bout and knocked out in the second round. Much earlier in his UFC career in 2017, Niko faced another Southpaw Alan Jouban in a fight Niko won quickly under two minutes into the fight. Being he does not have much experience against Southpaws, I think he will have a lot of trouble in this fight having to go against one of the most respected veterans in the promotion. I think at this point in their lives and careers, Niko has more skills than Lawler, but I believe Lawler may give him some trouble in the stand-up. Regardless, I think Lawler's chin may just be far too gone and if Niko can land one solid shot on him, it should be enough to put his lights out. 

Pick: Niko Price

Confidence Level: Medium

Nickal vs Woodburn 185 lbs

Undefeated middleweight prospects kick off the main card as Bo Nickal takes on Val Woodburn in a fight sure to bring fireworks. Bo Nickal has been a highly touted prospect since making the switch over to MMA after his wrestling career. At Penn State, Nickal won three national championships and was virtually unbeatable in his time there. He has taken his wrestling skills to the octagon, finishing all four of his opponents with three submissions. Bo has yet to show his boxing skills because he has been able to easily take down all of his past opponents so it will be interesting to see how he fairs if opponents are able to stuff his attempts. In his entire professional career, he has spent under five and a half minutes in the octagon, which is certainly concerning considering how important experience is in this sport. Despite his short time in an octagon, he has competed on the mats his entire life, making fights look easy for him when they get down there. Nickal is also yet to absorb a strike to the head in his career, making his chin and durability a big question going into this fight. Regardless, if Nickal is able to get the fight to the ground he should have no problem finishing Woodburn who prides himself on the power in his striking, not his jiu-jitsu. Val Woodburn is 7-0 as a professional, with five of his wins coming by way of knockout. He most recently won the Combat Night Middleweight Championship last August. He has not since been in the octagon, but when he is in there, he is vicious to opponents. Val is a short but stocky orthodox puncher who can put out opponents with a single punch. Through his first five professional fights, he was 5-0 with five knockouts all in the first two rounds. He will be fighting a Southpaw which may pose trouble to him on the feet, but his biggest worry should of course be Bo's wrestling. Woodburn has no chance in this fight if he finds himself on his back within the first minute of the fight, Nickal is just too strong on the ground to try to fight him there. Val must be content with taking the first minute or two to feel out his opponent and be ready to defend takedowns. If he can shut down the first couple of attempts, he puts himself in a great position to let his hands loose and try to put away the inexperienced Nickal. While it will be tough to do against a world-class wrestler like Bo, if he can find a way to win this fight he will make a name for himself in a promotion he did not think he'd be fighting in just a week ago. I just do not think a short-notice fight against Bo will fare well for him considering he has not had a full training camp to work on defending takedowns. 

Pick: Bo Nickal

Confidence Level: High

Turner vs Hooker 155 lbs

The next fight on the main card is a highly anticipated fight between ranked lightweights Jalin Turner and Dan Hooker. New Zealand's Dan Hooker looks to avenge himself from a losing skid that has caused him to lose two of his last three to promising fighters in lightweight champion Islam Mackhachev and featherweight prospect Arnold Allen. Hooker, fighting out of City Kickboxing with the likes of Kai Kara-France, Israel Adesanya, Alexander Volkanovski, and more, confirms his training camps going into his fights are always top-notch. He is a striker, using his long limbs and switching stances to avoid incoming shots and land big blows of his own. I expect to see a better Hooker in this fight than we have seen in recent bouts, however, that all starts with defending takedowns and if he is unable to do that, it will be a long night for him trying to scramble out of dangerous positions. His opponent, Turner, is the tallest and longest fighter on the card, despite fighting in only the 155 lbs lightweight division. This makes him a problem for opponents at range, as that is where does his best work on the feet. In the end, Jalin works most effectively when he is able to drag his opponent to the mat and use his long limbs to lock up submissions on the ground. I expect Hooker to have a lot of success on the feet, as he has faced far superior strikers to Turner throughout his career. The question of the winner will come down to how long and frequently Turner can get Hooker to the ground. 

Pick: Jalin Turner

Confidence Level: Low 

Whittaker vs Du Plessis 185 lbs

A chance for middleweight gold comes down to this number one contenders fight between Robert Whittaker and Dricus Du Plessis. Whittaker has an extremely impressive track record, losing to only Israel Adesanya in the last decade of his fighting career. If it weren't for Israel, there is no doubt Rob would be the reigning and defending middleweight champion, as he has already proven to have all the tools necessary to hold gold. Rob is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the division, being able to defend takedowns against the best wrestlers in the promotion while also possessing a strong striking defense that prohibits him from being hit with his opponent's biggest shots. On the ground Whittaker is hard to keep there, often finding ways to scramble back to his feet where he can strike. He is not necessarily a finisher, with 7 of his 8 previous fights going to a decision. Du Plessis is also an extremely well-rounded fighter, having 18 of his 19 career victories come by way of finish with eight ko's and ten submissions. He is undefeated since entering the UFC, holding a 5-0 record yet still not getting the respect he seems to have earned from the fans or Vegas. Because he has not yet faced top competition, fans doubt Du Plessis's abilities once he gets in the octagon with a true top contender, because he has only fought mid-level talent in his career to this point. I give him a better chance to come out victorious in this one than most, but I still believe he is not yet ready for this big of a challenge and will struggle when the bright lights come on on Saturday night.

Pick: Robert Whittaker

Confidence Level: Medium

Moreno vs Pantoja 125 lbs

UFC Flyweight Championship Bout

Round three between Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja, this one for the undisputed flyweight championship of the world. Brandon Moreno is not afraid of rivalries, as he just recently settled his rivalry with Deiveson Figueiredo where he took two of the three fights against him, with the fourth being a draw. This is a different type of rivalry, however, as the same fighter has won both previous bouts and is not the current champion. Moreno is an exciting flyweight champion to watch who can win fights from any position, whether it be by submitting his opponent or knocking him out. This will be an extremely high-level mixed martial arts match especially when the fight reaches the ground, as these are two of the best fighters in the world at hunting submission attempts and landing devastating ground and pound. It will be interesting to see who dictates the fight in the early rounds, and if that switches throughout the bout. What I said last weekend about Abus Magomedov may also be true this week about Alexandre Pantoja. Fighting in the co-main event of a card this big can cause a draining fight week, as you must spend the week leading up to the fight doing media obligations, interviews, signing posters, and more that can take a fighter out of their killer mindset prior to actually getting in the octagon and fighting. This long and strenuous week can cause Pantoja to gas out earlier in the fight, as he is not used to all the obligations of a fight week for a championship fight. Moreno, on the other hand, is on his second title reign and has shown no signs of slowing down. He is used to what a normal championship fight week brings and should have no surprises leading up to the bout. As far as skills are concerned, Pantoja certainly has the tools necessary to be the next flyweight champion with strong striking abilities and an impressive ability to find submission opportunities on the ground. I expect this fight to have fight of the night written all over it for however long it lasts, but at the end of the day, I trust Brandon Moreno to retain his championship and finally get a long-awaited win over rival Alexandre Pantoja. 

Pick: Brandon Moreno

Confidence Level: Low

Volkanovski vs Rodriguez 145 lbs

UFC Featherweight Championship Bout

The main event of the evening is up next, in a highly anticipated and exciting bout between two fighters with a contrast of styles in reigning defending champion Alexander "The Great" Volkanovski and interim featherweight champion Yair "El Pantera" Rodriguez. Since entering the UFC, Volkanovski has been dominant, going 12-1 with his only loss coming in his last fight for the lightweight championship against Islam Mackhachev in what was an absolute war of a fight that proved Volk can hang with anyone in the world in the octagon, regardless of weight class. He is not perfect at one individual thing, but rather very good in every area of the fight game which allows him to dominate opponents no matter the position or situation of the fight. He will have to utilize his wrestling often and effectively in this fight, as Yair is a dangerous and unpredictable fighter on the feet that I am sure Alex does not want to have to deal with there for much time. Yair does have a 63% takedown defense which should greatly help him in this fight, but if he is not able to defend over 50% of Volk's attempts, he will have a lot of trouble keeping his head in the fight come the later rounds. Yair certainly has the tools to win this fight, as his height and reach advantage along with his unpredictable style put him in a good position to be successful in the stand-up, but he must be sure to not take those opportunities for granted and hurt Volk with any chance he gets. What we have seen out of the champion that concerns me in this particular fight is his way of defending head kicks. In the past, instead of avoiding the kicks, he leans into them. This has not proven to hurt him yet, as none of the head kicks he has absorbed have knocked him out, but against someone with as much power in his kicks as Yair, that can very easily change. He has to be sure to put up a guard against the high kicks and not let them hit him flush, or else there is a chance Rodriguez will be able to put him out. If Volkanovski can avoid the dangerous shots on the feet, he should cruise to another victory like he has done his whole career against guys in the featherweight division. I do believe Yair has a better chance than the betting odds are giving him, but at the moment, there is no one in the featherweight division that I would pick to beat Volkanovski, as he seems to continue to improve with every fight. 

Pick: Alexander Volkanovski

Confidence Level: Medium