UFC Fight Night: Holm vs Bueno Silva 7/15

UFC 290 and IFW lived up to the hype giving us one of the best cards of this calendar year. Volkanovski once again showed that he's the best featherweight in the world while Dricus Du Plessis proved all his doubters wrong by making light work of Rob Whittaker. The card was incredible, giving us four finishes in under a minute, now a UFC record for a single card. This week, the UFC returns to the Apex for a fight night filled with young up-and-coming talent in their respective divisions.

Evans-Smith vs Perez 135 lbs

The first fight on the card is between inexperienced bantamweights looking to avenge previous losses in Ashlee Evans-Smith and Ailin Perez. Though only having eleven professional fights, Evans-Smith is 36 years old, holding a 3-5 record in the UFC. Ashlee does her best work on the feet striking with her opponent, but has heavily struggled in fights she was taken down in. She is an active striker who pushes the pace on her opponent, however, has only landed 34% of her significant strike attempts, which is very low among fighters who rely on their striking. Her opponent, Ailin Perez is a relative newcomer to the UFC, having only one fight in the promotion in September 2022 which resulted in a loss to Stephanie Egger. In her professional career, she holds a 7-2 record with her only two losses coming at the hands of UFC-level opponents as she suffered a loss to Tamires Vidal in 2021 in the Samurai Fight House promotion. Perez was the champ entering the fight and seemed to look good in the bout until she threw illegal knees on her opponent, causing her to be disqualified and lose the fight. Ailin seems to be the more well-rounded fighter of the two, but her lack of experience worries me against a fighter who has been in the octagon with some killers. On the feet, Ashlee Evans-Smith should be the aggressor, attempting to control the fight from the start, but if Perez can find a way to secure takedowns against Smith's 66% takedown defense, I see Ashlee having a very tough time getting back to her feet or finding a submission on the ground. With that in mind, I believe Ailin Perez has more ways to win, giving her the nod as my pick to win with very low confidence.  

Pick: Ailin Perez

Confidence Level: Low 

Deaton vs Munoz 155 lbs

The next fight of the night takes place in the lightweight division, as American Top Team's Carl Deaton III takes on Team Alpha Males Alex Munoz with both fighters looking for their first win in the UFC. Deaton is 17-6 (0-1 UFC) and has put together a promising career on the regional scene, winning nine of his fights by submission. Both fighters in this bout do their best work on the ground, making the early parts of the fight the most important, as the fighter who secures the first takedown and gets top control has a great opportunity to wear down their opponent and direct the next two rounds of the fight. Alexander narrowly lost his previous fight to Luis Pena by split decision in a fight I scored for Munoz. Despite winning on my scorecard, it showed Munoz he can never be comfortable letting a fight go to the scorecards as the judges' scores will always be unpredictable. Both fighters struggled greatly on their feet in their UFC bouts, so I expect to see improvements in that area for both fighters. This is a difficult fight to pick as both fighters have similar strengths and neither has beat a UFC-level opponent in their career. That being said, I am picking the more experienced fighter to win this fight with once again, a very low level of confidence.

Pick: Carl Deaton III

Confidence Level: Low

Nam vs Maksum 125 lbs

The next fight promises to be exciting as the fearless Tyson Nam approaches the challenge of facing highly touted UFC prospect, and undefeated Kazakhstanian, Azat Maksum. Nam is a highly experienced mixed martial artist who has seven UFC fights, going 3-4 in those fights but facing some of the top competition in the division during that time. Nam is a stand-up striker with excellent takedown defense, being yet to be taken down in his UFC career. He is a flashy striker with power in his hands, which has helped him collect 13 KO/TKO victories in his career. Despite his 3-4 record, he has been no walkover for any fighters on the UFC roster, making this fight a tough challenge for Azat in his UFC debut. Azat Maksum makes his UFC debut with a lot of hype behind him, as the 28-year-old stands unbeaten in the octagon up to this point. He reminds many of another undefeated fighter from Kazakhstan who has made a name for himself as one of the most dangerous fighters in the welterweight division, Shavkat Rakhmonov. In his career he has proven to be extremely well-rounded, winning fights in a variety of ways, having five KO/TKO wins, six submission wins, and four wins by decision, showing he should have the stamina to stand and bang with any opponent in the division. The question I am intrigued to see answered is if and how often Azat is able to takedown Nam. If he takes him down multiple times in this fight, it will show he can be a real problem for the rest of the division going forward as no one else has been able to take him down yet in his career. No matter where the fight takes place, I believe Azat Maksum should have a considerable advantage, meaning the only way I see him losing is if he gets caught with one of Tyson's powerful shots or Azat makes a mistake on his own that causes him to lose a position or put himself in a spot where he can be finished. I do not expect that to happen, however, and believe Maksum is as good as people are making him out to be, which means he will be a problem in the division for years to come. 

Pick: Azat Maksum

Confidence Level: High

Valdez vs Elder 155 lbs

We return to the lightweight division for the next bout as fighters Genaro Valdez and Evan Elder look to get back in the win column as both are riding two-fight losing streaks. The Mexican Genaro Valdez was 10-0 when he won his DWCS fight in 2021 and looked to have a promising career ahead of him. Since entering the UFC, however, he has struggled, losing fights to both Matt Frevola and Natan Levy while showing no real glimpses of being a UFC-ready fighter in those contests. Frevola knocked Valdez down four times in the first round before finishing him with punches to the head from back control. In just 3:15, Frevola was able to land 60 significant strikes on Valdez, raising concerns about his defense and ability to compete with high-level strikers. In his career, he has seven KO wins, but it has become abundantly clear that his level of competition in those fights has not been high, resulting in a rude awakening when he made his UFC debut. In his second UFC fight against Levy, he looked slightly better, competing with Levy on the feet, but being taken down a total of six times in the contest, once again proving there are many holes in his game that he needs to fix if he wants to compete at this level. His opponent, Evan Elder has also struggled since getting the call to the UFC, going 0-2 in those fights. In his UFC debut against Preston Parsons, Parsons exploited Elder's weakness which was his takedown defense. Preston took him down four times and found himself with five submission attempts in the fight that went to a decision. In his second UFC fight, Elder looked far better against a strong opponent in Nazim Sadykhov who will be fighting later in the card against Terrance McKinney. In Elder's fight against Nazim, Elder seemed to have the upper hand after the first two rounds, collecting a knockdown in the first and a takedown in the second along with over a minute and a half of control time. It all fell apart for Evan when the doctor came out and called the fight due to a doctor's stoppage, giving Nazim Sadykhov the win. Elder's improvements from his previous fight to this one showed he has put in the work and can certainly compete with some of the better fighters in the promotion. Considering his improvements and the many holes in Valdez's game, I think it is fair to say Elder should likely have the upper hand in this fight. 

Pick: Evan Elder

Confidence Level: Medium 

Della Maddalena vs Hafez 170 lbs

Jack Della Maddalena has a fight! After being scratched from last week's UFC 290 card, Della Maddalena told the UFC he would be staying in Vegas with the hopes of being able to fight on this card. The UFC was able to find him an opponent in UFC newcomer Bassil Hafez who will have a large task at hand taking on the Australian currently on a 14-fight win streak. Jack Della Maddalena has made a huge impact since entering the UFC, winning all four of his fights by finish without yet having a fight enter the second round. He is a switch stance fighter that has proven to have the power to knock out any opponent, but his last fight showed the strides he has made in the submission game. After three straight knockout wins, Jack was given the difficult task of taking on the long and dangerous Randy Brown who has been sort of a gatekeeper in the division, as all the fighters that beat him seem to have very strong careers. Against Brown, Maddalena scored an early knockdown and pounced on the opportunity to finish a hurt opponent. He immediately latched onto the neck of Brown and showed off his tight squeeze, causing Randy to tap out and giving Jack Della Maddalena another first-round finish. With some of the best boxing in the UFC to go along with a strong takedown defense, it is only a matter of time before JDM is at the top of the welterweight division. Though Bassil Hafez is an overwhelming underdog, he believes he has the tools to knock off the hard-hitting prospect. Hafez has spent most of his career fighting in CFFC and Fury FC which has helped him accumulate the 8-3-1 record he holds entering the bout. The best part of his game is his submissions, as he has four wins by that method, however, his most previous win came by knockout, showing his versatile ability to win fights in different ways. Something noteworthy going into this fight is Bassil has never been finished in his career, but will be facing one of the best finishers we have seen in some years, making it interesting to see how long this fight lasts. Bassil Hafez may have the chance to put together a successful campaign in the UFC, but given his opponent and time to prepare for this fight, there is a very slim chance he comes out victorious. 

Pick: Jack Della Maddalena

Confidence Level: High

Lingo vs Costa 145 lbs

The first fight of the card in the featherweight division should be a fun and closely contested one between Austin Lingo and Melo Costa. Austin Lingo made his UFC debut with a 7-0 record but has gone 2-2 since entering the promotion, losing most recently to Nate Landwehr this past March. Lingo prefers his fights to stay on the feet as he is a capable striker with three career knockouts. He celebrated his 29th birthday earlier this week and will be looking to put an exclamation point on it with a big win over Melo Costa. Lingo has shown off his impressive boxing abilities in his wins against Jacob Kilburn and Luis Saldana but what has impressed me most about him in all his fights is his striking defense which stands at 58%. This shows his head movement, feints, and overall boxing is stronger than most of his competitors. The main issue in his UFC losses has been his lack of ability to defend takedowns. In each of his losses, being taken down has cost him the fight. Melo Costa enters this fight looking for his first UFC win. The former lightweight is dropping down to featherweight for this bout where he feels his size can give him an advantage against smaller opponents. Costa is a Southpaw striker with a strong ground game that has helped him submit six opponents in his career. He was a highly touted prospect entering the UFC but his debut loss to Thiago Moises drew a lot of hype away from his name. In his pre-UFC career, Melo fought on the regional scene for a ton of different promotions, with the most known being LFA where he went 1-1 in his two fights. I think the drop-down to featherweight will greatly help Costa as long as he is not too drained out at that weight. I also believe Melo Costa's Southpaw stance will give fits to Austin Lingo. Lingo has yet to face a UFC-level Southpaw but did fight his UFC debut against Youseff Zalal who is a switch stance fighter that gave Lingo trouble in all areas of the fight game in his unanimous decision victory. 

Pick: Melo Costa

Confidence Level: Low

Nunes vs Dudakova 115 lbs

The next fight takes place in the women's strawweight division as two fighters look for their first UFC victories, Istela Nunes and Viktoriya Dudakova. Istela is a 30-year-old fighter with an 0-3 record in the UFC losing bouts to Ariane Carnelossi, Sam Hughes, and Yazmin Jauregui. She has struggled in her entire career against strong competition, as her wins have come against highly inexperienced fighters or ones with questionable records. Her fights against high-level impressive mixed martial artists have all resulted in losses. Nunes's strengths are in her stand-up game, using her ability to tire opponents and drag out decision victories. Her opponent, Viktoriya Dudakova, is a rare Russian female fighter in the UFC. She is 6-0 with her most recent victory coming in DWCS 2022 over the previously undefeated Maria Silva. Dudakova, like most Russian fighters, prides herself on her wrestling and grappling ability, having four of her six career wins come by submission. She has not fought many high-level fighters, but her win over Maria Silva showed she can compete with fighters in the UFC, and considering Nunes' track record in the promotion, Viktoriya should have the upper hand in this fight, especially if she can take down her opponent who holds only a 53% takedown defense since entering the UFC. 

Pick: Viktoriya Dudakova

Confidence Level: Low

Lutz vs Baghdasaryan 145 lbs

Back to the featherweight division for a bout between unranked featherweights Tucker Lutz and Melsik Baghdasarayan. Lutz stormed on the UFC scene in 2020 after a win on DWCS earning him a contract with the promotion. He continued his winning ways in his UFC debut against Kevin Aguilar, giving him a 12-1 overall record and seeming to be a potential contender in the division. All has gone downhill for Lutz since then, as he has lost his last two fights to strong competition in Pat Sabatini and Daniel Pineda. Tucker's wrestling was no match for either opponent, as Sabatini took him down five times in route to a unanimous decision victory while Pineda used his sole takedown in the fight to submit Tucker with a guillotine choke. Going from a future contender to a nobody in the UFC is a tough pill to swallow, but he has a chance to avenge those losses this weekend against an opponent with only nine professional fights to his name in Melsik Baghdasarayan. Melsik had a similar start to his UFC career, but rather won his first two UFC fights after a DWCS victory, making him a potential future contender as he was a young and clearly dangerous fighter. After a long 1.5-year layoff, Melsik came back to take on Australian Josh Culibao. While he looked great in the first round, Culibao was able to lock in a rear naked choke in the second that submitted Baghdasarayan. Despite the loss, it was promising to see Melsik put together a good fight after a long layoff that he likely would have won if it had gone the distance. I think this is a sneaky good fight, as we cannot forget how high people spoke of Tucker Lutz earlier in his career. Both fighters have the potential to have long, successful careers, but it all starts with getting back on track and in the winning column in this bout. I see this as a closely contested fight but believe Tucker Lutz will pull off the upset by controlling Melsik with the help of his wrestling.

Pick: Tucker Lutz

Confidence Level: Low 

McKinney vs Sadykhov 155 lbs

One of the most highly anticipated fights of this mostly lackluster card comes between highly entertaining lightweight prospects Terrance McKinney and Nazim Sadykhov. McKinney stormed on the scene in the UFC, winning his debut fight in just seven seconds by knocking out Matt Frevola but has returned to his normal self since that fight, holding a 3-2 record in the UFC. McKinney is a fun fighter to watch, throwing powerful shots at a high pace with great footwork on the open mat that lets him find and keep his distance from his opponent. He is known for putting himself and his opponent in danger at all times, as in his 18-fight professional career, he has not had a single one go to the scorecards. He fights tenaciously with a lot of aggression which has been a blessing for him in some fights and a curse in others. His opponent Nazim Sadykhov is much less experienced with only nine professional fights to his name holding an 8-1 record. As mentioned earlier, his most recent fight against Evan Elder was extremely closely contested and if it had gone to a decision, the win may have been awarded to Elder but because of a large gash above his eye, the doctor called a stop to the fight to have him receive immediate medical attention. Nazim will gladly take another KO/TKO victory for his resume and continue moving forward considering a win against McKinney will force the promotion to have to treat him like a rising contender and possibly give him a ranked contender in his next fight. McKinney has only fought one UFC-level Southpaw in his career, Drew Dober, who knocked McKinney out in the first round. Terrance's switch stance may be a problem for Sadykhov, but if all goes according to plan, I see Nazim Sadykhov knocking out Terrance McKinney in this fight. If that is to happen, it will be interesting to see what fight McKinney takes next to avenge himself after back to back losses.

Pick: Nazim Sadykhov

Confidence Level: Low

Azaitar vs Prado 155 lbs

Former undefeated prospects coming off their first career loss look to bounce back in a big way on Saturday as Ottman Azaitar faces off with Francisco Prado. Azaitar is a Muay Thai fighter who holds a 13-1 (2-1 UFC) record with his only career loss coming last November to the now fifteenth-ranked lightweight in the UFC Matt Frevola. In his 3-fight UFC career, he has spent a total of 7 minutes 36 seconds in the octagon. His power is unquestionable, but his recent fight exposed a weakness in his chin. He was knocked out absorbing only eleven total punches in the fight, however, it is undeniable that Matt Frevola holds a different kind of power in his hands after seeing his last knockout win at UFC 288 against Drew Dober. Either way, Francisco Prado has proven to have a lot of power of his own, having four knockout wins in the first round in his career and five overall. To go with the power, he threatens with submissions as well, having six to his name, however, none have been against good opponents. He fought most of his pre-UFC career for Samurai Fight House where he racked up a lot of wins, but failed to face good competition which became clear in his UFC debut against Jamie Mullarkey. Jamie won all three rounds and dominated each exchange, scoring three takedowns with nearly five minutes of control while also landing nearly double the number of strikes from distance than Prado. After seeing the debut, it makes it difficult for me to pick him in this fight. I think it is noteworthy that although he has only one UFC fight compared to Azaitar's three, Prado still has nearly double the amount of octagon time, making inexperience on the big stage a possible factor for these fighters. Regardless, I believe Ottman's takedown defense and the power in his hands will win him this fight. He has faced far better competition in his career and has looked great thus far. The loss to Frevola is an exception for me as I believe Frevola will only move up in the rankings in his following fights. This is a great chance for him to get back on track and show the improvements he has made since his previous knockout loss. 

Pick: Ottman Azaitar

Confidence Level: Medium

Dumont vs Chandler 145 lbs

A featherweight bout between ranked bantamweights is up next as Brazil's Norma Dumont takes on Stockton, California's Chelsea Chandler. Dumont is a smart and calculated fighter, being rarely finished by her opponent because of her impressive defense both in the stand-up and in wrestling. She has only been taken down in one of her seven UFC fights, to Macy Chiasson who took her down a total of six times in the fight. Despite that one blunder of a performance, Norma holds a 100% takedown defense rate while also having a striking defense rate of 67%, one of the highest in the UFC for a fighter with 5+ fights in the promotion. Dumont has also proven to be a durable opponent that does not threaten her opponent with submissions or overwhelming power, as her last six fights have all gone to the judges' scorecards. She is strong in all areas but does not rely on one skill set to win fights, Chelsea Chandler has much fewer fights on her resume, with only a 5-1 (1-0 UFC) professional record. The 32-year-old fought her entire pre-UFC career with Invicta FC, collecting wins over some of the better female competition not in the UFC. In her UFC debut, she put her name on the map, knocking out Julija Stoliarenko in the very first round, landing more than triple the number of strikes as her opponent. Chelsea's Southpaw stance has been tough to figure out for opponents, and considering Dumont has yet to face a UFC-level Southpaw, she will be facing a tall task when she gets in the octagon with Chelsea Chandler. I do believe Norma will have the skills and ability to get the fight to the ground, but I fear she will be unable to keep it there. Despite that, Dumont has more overall skills and experience, but I fear she will have trouble getting punches through to Chandler, as the only other fighter she fought that threw a few Southpaw looks in the fight was Macy Chiasson who dominated her fight with Dumont.   

Pick: Norma Dumont

Confidence Level: Low

Duraev vs Park 185 lbs

The originally scheduled co-main event of the evening was a bout between Albert Duraev and Jun Yong Park but the card was re-shuffled after the announcement of the Jack Della Maddalena fight. The Russian Duraev has gone 2-1 in his three UFC fights against mid-level competition, having the most success with his wrestling, where he is averaging over two takedowns per 15 minutes. He seems to struggle on the feet against more opponents but makes up for it when he gets his opponent to the ground and threatens them with submission attempts and ground and pound. His chin is rather questionable, as in three UFC fights he has already suffered a knockout loss as well as being knocked down three times. His striking defense of 63% sounds good on paper, but he needs to do a better job of avoiding the power shots from his opponents. In this fight, Duraev needs to be imminent in getting the fight to the ground, where he can really wear down Park. On the feet, I see Park having a significant advantage in most areas such as pace, power, and defense. It is worth noting that although Park has far more experience when it comes to UFC fights, he has yet to face any top-level competition, making me fear how he may perform when given a tough opponent, which he will be facing in Duraev. I believe Jun Yong Park will be the better fighter on the feet, and do a good enough job defending takedowns to earn himself a decision win. Park's takedown defense is too strong to let Duraev take him down multiple times while Albert will also have to be cautious of Park's takedown offense, as he frequently shoots for takedowns in his fights. 

Pick: Jun Yong Park

Confidence Level: Low

Holm vs Bueno Silva 135 lbs

The main event of the card is a match between ranked bantamweight contenders in third-ranked Holly Holm and tenth-ranked Mayra Bueno Silva. Holly Holm comes into this fight at 41 years old, but you would never know it watching her previous fights. She of course made a big name for herself in 2015 with her head kick knockout win over Ronda Rousey that absolutely no one saw coming. She has since continued to impress with her performances in the octagon, only losing to the best of the best competition. As a fighter, she is a long and tall Southpaw striker who has the ability to knock her opponent out, yet has not done so since 2017. Holly is used to 5-round fights and putting a high pace on her opponents to win fights because of her stamina and boxing and two of her biggest strengths. She has also impressed many with her takedown defense, as it stands at 78% while facing some of the best wrestlers in her division. When Holly Holm fights, fans know what they are getting, a fighter who will leave it all in the octagon every time she goes out, doing whatever it takes to come out victorious. Bueno Silva will be fighting in her first UFC main event, despite having eight fights with the promotion. Her main threat is her submissions, attempting 1.5 submissions per 15 minutes. Where Mayra has yet to show much improvement is her wrestling game, only averaging .38 takedowns per 15 minutes. As a submission artist like herself, she must be more able and willing to get fights to the ground early and often. Against a fighter like Holm, she can not try to play too long in the stand-up with her, as Holm's boxing is far more advanced than Mayra's. Bueno Silva has to be rather imminent on getting the fight to the mat from the opening bell, where she can hopefully tire out her aging opponent and pull off one of her many slick submissions. I have said this in the past and stand by it, I believe a fighter fighting in their first UFC main event against someone who has had one or multiple is at a significant disadvantage. The media obligations and other things the UFC makes main event fighters do on fight week can be draining for a normal fighter, and they most likely are unable to continue training as much as they'd like, making them tire out quickly or look rusty in the octagon. For Holm who will now be competing in her ninth main event, this week is just another day at the office for her. I expect Holly Holm to look sharp in the early rounds, and use the later ones to be more cautious of Silva's submission attempts. If Holm is able to defend most of Mayra's takedown attempts like I expect her to, Holly should cruise to a main-event victory over her, putting her name back in the running for another title shot.    

Pick: Holly Holm 

Confidence Level: Medium