UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Magomedov 7/1

After an abysmal week of picks at UFC Jacksonville, we look to recover this week as the UFC returns to the Apex for UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Magomedov. The card is filled with UFC debutants, ranked prospects, and up-and-coming stars in the promotion making it can't miss for die-hard MMA fans.

Kutateladze vs Brenner 155 lbs

We start the night in the lightweight division with a bout between rising contenders in the division. Guram Kutateladze, fighting out of the country Georgia, holds a 12-3 record and will be competing in his third UFC fight. He was been fed killers since entering the UFC, being matched up against both Mateusz Gamrot and Damir Ismagulov without any tune-up fights prior to them. Surprisingly, in his UFC debut against Gamrot, Guram put on an impressive performance, finding success on the feet against the Southpaw, knocking him down in the second round and earning a split decision victory in a razor-close fight between prospects. Both of his two UFC fights have ended by split decision, with one being a win and the other a loss. Kutateladze excels with his kickboxing, being primarily a counter-striker with a wide variety of devastating kicks capable of knocking opponents out. He is a fighter you can never feel safe against, as he does some of his best work with his back against the fence. His opponent, Brenner will only be 25 years old at the time of the fight with little experience in the UFC, having only one fight in the promotion. Fighting out of the Chute Boxe Diego Lima Muay Thai gym alongside UFC stars such as Charles Oliveira and Allan Nascimento, he has developed a strong stand-up game which carried him to his first UFC win over Zubaira Tukhugov in a bout that was extremely closely contested. In the bout, both fighters attempted multiple takedowns, trying to get the fight to the ground but both were unsuccessful, making the bout a stand-up fight for the 15 minutes it lasted, with Tukhugov finding some success in the third round in the clinch, securing 2:11 of control time but being unable to record the takedown he was hunting, tiring him and allowing Brenner to land the more effective strikes in that round. Elves impressively won the fight on two of the judges' scorecards, proving himself as a contender in the lightweight division, as an incredibly large underdog. What Brenner was not able to show off in that fight was his BJJ. Training with the best submission artist in the UFC, he is expected to be even better on the ground than on the feet, making him a threat to any opponent he faces. In his pro-MMA career, he has won 10 of his 14 wins by submission, with most coming by arm bar. This is a tough fight to pick, as neither fighter has much UFC experience, but considering Guram's higher level of competition in the UFC and his win over Mateusz Gamrot, I expect him to find a way to pull off a win in this fight by utilizing his funky kickboxing style. It would be unsurprising if this fight ended by split decision considering all three UFC bouts between the two fighters ended that way.

Pick: Guram Kutateladze

Confidence Level: High

Romanov vs Ivanov 265 lbs

The next bout is between Southpaw heavyweight contenders Alexandr Romanov and Blagoy Ivanov. Romanov was a former top contender in the division when he had a 16-0 pro-MMA record with five wins in the UFC. His wrestling carried him to wins over Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Jared Vanderra, Chase Sherman, and more before the UFC decided to step up his level of competition. He suffered his first UFC and professional loss at UFC 278 last August at the hands of Marcin Tybura in a competitive fight that went the distance. Alexandr struggles in the stand-up, as his reach is shorter than the majority of heavyweights and he does not possess the speed necessary to get in the pocket and put a hurting on the top heavyweights in the division. The key to his game is taking his opponent down, as the fights he is able to do that often result in victories for the Moldovan. Romanov's gas tank is weak, as the second and third rounds of his fight with Tybura exposed that part of his game. If he is not able to secure takedowns early and often, he has a lot of trouble putting fights away in the later rounds. Ivanov is the better kickboxer of the two, training at the American Kickboxing Academy in California. Ivanov is short for a heavyweight at only 5'11", but his Southpaw stance and durability make him a challenge for Romanov. Unlike the Moldovan who is a one-round fighter, Blagoy has yet to have one of his UFC fights end in the distance, putting on a great display of durability considering he has been in the octagon with some of the most powerful heavyweight strikers in the world, including Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa. This fight will come down to Ivanov's takedown defense or lack thereof. If he can defend the early onslaught of takedowns from Romanov, he should have no trouble grinding out a decision win. The longer the fight lasts, the better for Ivanov as Romanov's takedowns become much weaker in the later rounds when he is not fresh. I believe Blagoy's 70% takedown defense in his UFC career will carry him to a victory this weekend over the one-dimensional Moldovan.    

Pick: Blagoy Ivanov

Confidence Level: Low

Brito vs Wilson 145 lbs

A fight bound to produce fireworks is on deck between the surging Joanderson Brito and UFC debutant Westin Wilson. Brito comes into this bout on a two-fight win streak with victories over Andre Fili and Lucas Alexander with Brito finishing both in the first round. Brito fights at a high pace and possesses all the tools necessary to be a future belt contender. He is most comfortable on the ground, in top control, meaning takedowns are an essential part of his game. He is gifted with the ability to know exactly when to shoot at his opponents, as his 70% takedown accuracy is impressive for someone who has attempted so many. This also keeps him from tiring himself out, as most fighters will become too invested in a takedown they will not secure, tiring their body and especially their arms out for the future rounds of the fight. His slick grappling and knowledge of jiu-jitsu have been an essential part of his game, as opponents have been able to find submission attempts against him, but none of them are successful. Brito has also shown off his improvements in his boxing which was primarily on display in his fight against Andre Fili. He used his powerful leg kicks to prevent Fili from closing the distance, then landed a beautiful jab followed by a right hook that sat down and finished Fili. This bout will bring a different challenge than his previous ones as Westin Wilson is the tallest opponent he has faced at 6'1". Wilson has no UFC experience and was called to join the promotion for this fight after Khusein Askhabov recently pulled out of his bout against Brito, meaning Wilson will be fighting on short notice and against one of the more impressive featherweights in the division. Wilson has one fight in his career against a UFC-caliber opponent, an XMMA fight against Teruto Ishihara in 2022. That fight lasted only 3:25, with Ishihara knocking out Wilson via a straight left hand through his guard. This is a huge concern entering this bout for Wilson, as his career has been filled with fights against underqualified and mostly inexperienced opponents. Wilson will need a miracle to win this fight considering Brito's skills are better in every area of the game.    

Pick: Joanderson Brito

Confidence Level: High 

Petrovic vs Carolina 125 lbs

The next bout is in the women's flyweight division between two fighters with a contrast of styles, Ivana Petrovic being a grappler and Luana Carolina excelling in the striking department. Ivana Petrovic is making her UFC debut, having got the call to the promotion early in her MMA career, with only six professional fights to her name. She won both of her previous two fights by rear naked choke, with the latter being her first AFC title defense. Petrovic has yet to fight a UFC-level opponent in her career, raising concerns considering she is fairly inexperienced and getting her shot in the world's biggest promotion. Being an unknown can play to her advantage in this bout if Carolina has not done her homework. Carolina comes into this bout on a 2-fight losing streak, to Molly McCann and Joanne Wood. Luana is best in the stand-up when she can trade throws with her opponent. She has also shown strength in the clinch and against the fence. In this fight, Carolina can not let Petrovic take the fight to the ground where she does her best work. Luana boasts a 78% takedown defense in her UFC career which is impressive, however, she has allowed at least one takedown in each of her last four fights. I expect Carolina to have a slight advantage on the feet in this bout, but if and when Petrovic secures her first takedown, she should be able to control the fight from that point forward.

Pick: Ivana Petrovic

Confidence Level: Low

Santos vs Rosa 145 lbs

Another women's fight is on deck, this one in the featherweight division between Russian Yana Santos and Brazilian Karol Rosa. Santos is going up a weight class for this fight after losing to Holly Holm just over three months ago. She fought for the UFC Women's Featherweight Championship in her UFC debut in 2018 against the great Cris Cyborg which resulted in a first-round KO loss for Santos. Since that fight, Santos has tried working her way back to the top but has been fairly unsuccessful. She has performed well and beat the lower level fighters in the division, but struggled every time she gets a big name or former title holder or challenger. Santos lives in the clinch and against the fence. This is where she feels most comfortable, safest, and with the best ability to take down her opponent. In this fight, Santos will look to bounce back from a two-fight losing streak to both Holly Holm and former title challenger Irene Aldana. Karol Rosa is the favorite in this fight, coming off a loss to Norma Dumont just three months ago. The storyline for this fight will be who can get back on track as both fighters are coming off losses but have shown the ability to be at the top of the division when on their game. Rosa fights at a high pace and throws a lot of strikes in her fights, being active from all positions. She will most likely be interested in taking Santos down, as Santos has struggled many times in her career from eh bottom position, being unable to get back to her feet and giving up rounds as a result. To do this, however, Rosa needs to be particular with her attempts and shoot at the right times to ensure she will get her opponent down. Rosa has been unable to take down some of her higher-level opponents, making me give the wrestling advantage to Santos. Santos's striking and her ability to enter and work from the clinch allow me to believe she will have a slight advantage on the feet. That being said, I think Santos has real life in this fight despite being an underdog. Her skills translate well to this type of opponent and as long as she can stay on her feet and force Rosa into unsuccessful takedowns, she will be able to win this fight convincingly.  

Pick: Yana Santos

Confidence Level: Low 

Lee vs Fakhretdinov 170 lbs

Kevin Lee is back! In his first fight in nearly a year and a half, Lee will take on no slouch of an opponent in Rinat Fakhretdinov who enters the bout on an eight-fight win streak. Lee was a former title challenger and high-ranked lightweight prospect before retiring from MMA about a year ago after previously being cut from the UFC. He won his previous fight in Eagle FC against another UFC fighter in Diego Sanchez. Kevin Lee is a well-rounded fighter, having his most experience wrestling. He wrestled at Grand Valley State University where he went 37-0 as a sophomore and qualified for the national tournament. He utilizes his wrestling in his MMA game to control his opponent and deploy his ground and pound, and ultimately work to submit his opponent. While his jiu-jitsu is a big part of his game, he used it less and less as his career went on. He has four submission wins in his career, all rear naked chokes within a two-year span in 2015-2017. He has rather made use of his powerful striking that helped him knock out the two opponents he faced in his previous two wins. Rinat Fakhretdinov is also a wrestler, using his top control to rain down ground and pound on his opponent. In his last fight against Bryan Battle, Rinat spent 14:11 of the 15:00 fight controlling Battle while securing a whopping seven takedowns on his nine attempts. Fakhretdinov also showed off some of his striking in that fight, recording a knockdown in the third round. The difference between Rinat and Kevin's wrestling is Kevin is more willing to hunt for submissions when on the ground, but Rinat focuses more on staying in top control and landing big shots in the ground and pound. I think the key to winning this fight for Rinat will be to stay calm when in top control and not force anything unnecessary that can allow Lee to scramble back to his feet or top control. For Kevin, the issue I see in this fight will be Rinat's perfect takedown defense he has recorded in his UFC career. Opponents have been unable to take him down, however, Lee is a better wrestler than his previous opponents, making him Rinat's biggest threat to this opponent. I believe Kevin will be able to secure a takedown, but will be unable to do anything with it, as Rinat will return to his feet or reverse the position rather quickly. I praise Kevin Lee for returning and coming back to what he loves, but choosing this strong of an opponent after a layoff may be an issue for the "Motown Phenom."

Pick: Rinat Fakhretdinov

Confidence Level: Medium

Ruziboev vs Ferreira 185 lbs

In a potential fight of the night between up-and-coming stars in the UFC, the highly experienced Nursulton Ruziboev takes on the undefeated Brunno Ferreira. The Uzbekistanian Ruziboev is only 29 years of age but holds a pro-MMA record of 34-8-2 with a 95% finish rate. Finally getting his shot in the UFC, Ruziboev has high potential fighting out of Renzo Gracie Philly with some of the top fighters in Sean Brady, Joe Pyfer, Pat Sabatini, and more. Nursultono is truly well-rounded, being able to finish fights from any position, but having most of his success with his submission game, submitting 20 opponents in his career. He has proven the hype is warranted as his pre-UFC resume is nearly as good as it gets, however, the biggest question going into this fight will be his stamina and how he is able to control his gas tank. Ruziboev has not seen the second round in a fight since 2019, as he finished all of his opponents since then in the first. That being said, it will be interesting to see how tired he gets in the later rounds of the fight if it gets there. Though his record and accolades are impressive, it is worth noting he has lost eight professional MMA fights which proves he has been in the octagon with high-level talent. He has suffered one knockout loss, one submission loss, and 6 losses by decision in his career making him vulnerable to high-level competitors. Brunno Ferreira has much less experience in his career than Ruziboev but has yet to suffer his first loss. Coming off a first-round knockout win of "Robocop" Gregory Rodrigues in his UFC debut showed the hype is warranted. His head movement, speed, and power in his hands are off the charts and much of the reason he has been so successful thus far. In a similar fashion to his opponent Ruziboev, Ferreira has not seen even the second round much as of recently. Eight of his ten career fights have ended in the first round, with the other two ending no later than 1:09 in the second round. His gas tank is yet to be tested and against a fighter like Ruziboev who has been hard to put away for opponents, I would not be surprised if this fight goes into the later rounds. It is also worth noting Brunno is a BJJ black belt with very slick grappling, helping him secure three wins by submission. For two relatively new fighters in the UFC, this is an extremely high-level match between guys I expect to see fighting for the belt in the coming years. 

Pick: Brunno Ferreira

Confidence Level: Low

Saint-Denis vs Bonfim 155 lbs

Another bout between young and exciting lightweight prospects is up next when the "God of War" Benoit Saint-Denis takes on "Marreta" Ismael Bonfim. The 27-year-old prospects will put their winning streaks on the line to rise up the ranks in the stacked lightweight division. Benoit Saint-Denis is a world-class grappler, with eight of his ten professional wins coming by submission. In the UFC, however, Denis has shown improvements in his striking, earning a knockout win in his last fight against Gabriel Miranda in a fight he knocked Miranda down three times before finishing the fight just 16 seconds into the second round. Only one fight in Benoit's short career has gone the distance, his UFC debut against Elizeu Zaleski who put on a masterclass on Benoit, landing 94 significant strikes in the second round of the bout and earning a 29-26 on all three judges' scorecards. While Benoit's high pace in his fight has served him well this far into his career, as he climbs the ranks and fights higher-level opponents, he will need to be more particular with his takedown attempts to not gas out early in the fight. This is yet to affect him, as he has used his other tools to make up for his lack of ability to secure takedowns efficiently. Because Bonfim is so well known for his impressive stand-up boxing, taking him to the ground will be essential for Benoit Saint-Denis to win this fight. Bonfim has had only one fight in the UFC, but has been a highly touted prospect even prior to his DWCS fight in 2022. He was fed a tough opponent in his UFC debut in Terrance McKinney, but showed off his incredible stand-up ability, knocking out McKinney with a flying knee to the head halfway through the second round. Ismael was ahead the entire fight, being hit only 14 times and defending strikes at a 78% clip, which is unheard of for most fighters. Along with defending 78% of strikes against him, Bonfim's accuracy was also quite impressive, landing 34 of 49 or 69% of his significant strike attempts. On the feet I expect Bonfim to have an advantage, controlling the distance and landing shots consistently on Denis. If Denis can get the fight to the ground, however, he will have a great opportunity to win the fight as his BJJ seems more advanced than that of Ismael's. In his two UFC-related fights, Bonfim has boasted an impressive 100% takedown defense, allowing me to believe he will have the tools to defend Benoit's attempts considering Benoit is only successfully landing 30% of his attempts. 

Pick: Ismael Bonfim

Confidence Level: Medium

Lipski vs Gatto 125 lbs

Another fight in the women's flyweight division is a main card bout between Ariane Lipski and Melissa Gatto. The "Queen of Violence" Ariane Lipski has had an up-and-down UFC career, resulting in a 4-5 record in the promotion. Lipski is a lower-level fighter in the division but has added wrinkles to her striking that have allowed her to win two of her last three fights. In her fight against Mandy Bohm, Lipski had her first fight with multiple knockdowns. Although she was not able to get the finish, this dominant victory showed her improvements after losing her previous two fights. She had a similarly dominant performance her last time out against JJ Aldrich in another unanimous decision victory, winning all three rounds on all judge's scorecards and landing more than double the number of significant strikes as Aldrich. Ariane does not have much to offer when the fight goes to the ground, as her best work is nearly always done in the stand-up. She has a 73% takedown defense that she will need to utilize in this bout against Gatto who uses her wrestling much more and will likely try to take this fight to the ground early. Melissa Gatto comes into this fight following a loss to Tracy Cortez. Prior to that loss, Gatto was victorious in her first two UFC fights securing a KO/TKO in both. Even in the loss to Cortez, Melissa had her moments especially in the second round of the fight. Though that was the only round she won, the first and third rounds were closely contested and could have gone the other way if Gatto had more urgency to get back on her feet. Regardless, Melissa has proven to be a future problem for females in the division, as she already has knockout power and is still young with the potential to improve the rest of her game. 

Pick: Melissa Gatto 

Confidence Level: Medium

Griffin vs Morales 170 lbs

In classic veteran vs prospect form, the 37-year-old Max Griffin gears up to take on 24-year-old undefeated prospect Michael Morales. The UFC veteran Max Griffin has fought 14 times in the promotion, boasting a 7-7 record in those fights but surprisingly winning four of his last five. His record does not tell the full story as three of his losses have come by split decisions that could have gone either way on the scorecards. As a matter of fact, his fight with Thiago Alves seemed very close to a robbery, as nearly all the media judges believed Griffin won the fight. At the end of the day, Max certainly could have won more convincingly but there is not much he can do about questionable judging. As far as Griffin's strengths, he is a well-rounded fighter, having a background in both boxing and wrestling, making him dangerous for opponents in any scenario. His takedown defense has been impressive, allowing him to stay on his feet and utilize his crisp boxing skills. Going into this fight, he has a tough task at hand as he takes on an undefeated prospect. Morales has looked very impressive in his short, two-fight UFC career thus far. He knocked out both his prior opponents in Trevin Giles and Adam Fugitt and has had multiple bouts scheduled since his last fight but none have come to fruition, meaning he has not fought in nearly a year. Morales' boxing power and accuracy have been his biggest strengths, along with his strong chin. He fights hard and fast, meaning he is willing to stand and trade shots with anyone, but we have yet to see much of his wrestling. While we have yet to see any flaws in Morales, as he holds a 14-0 record, I still question his striking defense and wrestling. He knows he has the power to knock out any opponent, but I am afraid that can hurt him in the future because he has a tendency to blitz his opponent and go all out for a knockout while not covering himself from counterstrikes. As more film comes out on him, others will try to bait Morales into one of his blitz's just to counter him. My concern with his writing is mainly the fact it has yet to be tested. His takedown accuracy has been bad despite his wins, at only 40%. The welterweight division holds some of the best wrestlers, so it is important that Morales perfects that part of his game before taking a step up in competition. Morales has the advantage in most areas of this fight, making him my pick to win, however, I do believe there are avenues for Griffin to win if he picks his shots carefully and uses his wrestling effectively. 

Pick: Michael Morales

Confidence Level: Medium

Ismagulov vs Dawson 155 lbs

The co-main event of the evening comes between rising lightweight prospects Damir Ismagulov and Grant Dawson. Ismagulov enters the bout with a professional record of 24-2, losing his most recent fight to Arman Tsarukyan. Prior to the loss, he was 5-0 in the UFC with wins over stiff competition in Guram Kutateladze, Thiago Moises, Joel Alvarez, and more. Damir has strong boxing defense, allowing him to only be hit 2.51 times per minute and defending 62% of strikes against. His offense can use some work, as his accuracy sits at only 42%, landing 3.78 significant strikes per minute. Damir does not use his wrestling much, as he is most comfortable on the feet standing with his opponent but his takedown defense has been impressive, at 75%. Grant Dawson goes into his fights with a different game plan than Ismagulov, using his wrestling to get the fight to the mat where he is most comfortable. He averages 1.6 submission attempts per fight in his 8 UFC fights, helping lead him to a 7-0-1 record in the promotion. Four of those wins have come via submission with one KO/TKO as well. Three of his victories came in the third and final round, proving his stamina is up there with some of the best fighters. He has struggled with his wrestling despite being lossless, securing only 34% of his takedown attempts and only defending 40% of attempts against him. Being his biggest strength is his grappling, he will need to improve his wrestling to get the fight to the ground at a higher rate where he has the best chance to finish the fight. He will struggle against a fighter like Ismagulov if he has not improved his striking skills and goes into the bout expecting to take Damir down with ease and submit him. Damir has great defensive wrestling and jiu-jitsu, meaning Dawson will have to be particular with his takedown attempts to ensure he is not gassing himself out shooting for improbable takedowns. On the feet, I expect this to be a back-and-forth battle with both guys having moments on the feet, but neither being able to put the other away. This should be a closely contested bout between rising prospects that I expect to see go the full 15 minutes with the possibility of a split decision. 

Pick: Grant Dawson    

Confidence Level: Low

Strickland vs Magomedov 185 lbs

Another UFC Apex main event for Sean Strickland, who will be competing in his fifth UFC main event having already tallied 18 UFC fights. His opponent Abus Magomedov is a UFC newcomer looking to add his name to the middleweight rankings with a convincing win over the highly touted Sean Strickland who has only lost to the best of the best throughout his career. Strickland put an end to his two-fight losing skid in his last fight by earning a unanimous decision win over Russian Nassourdine Imavov. When talking about Sean Strickland, you know exactly what you're going to get, but his skills still make it a hard fight. He treats his fights like sparring matches, having great boxing defense, and throwing mainly his jab. He does not threaten opponents with knockout power but uses his toughness and stamina to wear down opponents, causing them to get frustrated by being unable to hit him. He uses this to his advantage, effectively counter-striking those who overcommit to shots with the hope of finally landing a damaging shot on Strickland. His strong chin has proven it takes a special amount of power to put him out, meaning Abus must be ready for a 25-minute war with one of the best middleweights on the planet. While Strickland does not show off his grappling, that is due to the fact opponents have a lot of trouble taking him down. In his long UFC career, he has defended 85% of takedown attempts against some of the best wrestlers in the UFC, making him one of the toughest opponents in the division because he draws opponents into his style of fight, which he obviously excels at. Abus Magomedov is the more well-rounded opponent, having a developed ground game that has helped him submit six opponents in his 25-win MMA career. Still, the strongest part of his game is his striking, having 14 knockout wins to his name. Abus has only fought one UFC fight which lasted only 19 seconds and resulted in a knockout win after landing a devastating front kick to the face followed by ground strikes. Being he is so young in his UFC career and already fighting in such a big main event against an opponent with a high ranking, I question if he is ready to take this step at this point in his career. The obligations of a fighter in the main event on fight week are different and can be draining for fighters who have never done it. Strickland is a UFC vet having fought in every type of UFC fight whether it be a main event or for the belt, meaning the media day obligations and constant interviews prior to the fight are nothing new to him, but to Abus, they can cause him to become unfocused leading up to the fight, hurting his performance in the octagon. As far as skill is concerned, Abus has the ability to compete and beat Strickland if he fights his fight, as his power and kickboxing skills have been highly impressive in his lone UFC fight and fights in the 2018 PFL season. That being said, Strickland's experience and toughness are unmatched, meaning it will take a very impressive performance from Abus to come out victorious. 

Pick: Sean Strickland

Confidence Level: Low