UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs Topuria 6/24

The UFC returns to Jacksonville, Florida after an exciting UFC Fight Night event at the UFC Apex headlined by a dominant performance from Jared Cannonier. 14 fights are currently scheduled for the card taking place in the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena beginning Saturday at Noon EST. 

Brundage vs Dumas 185 lbs

Formerly fighting on the main card, Sedriques Dumas has moved back to the prelims after his opponent, Punahele Soriano pulled out of the fight, making room for Cody Brundage to get back on track in his sixth fight with the UFC. Holding a 2-3 record in the promotion, Brundage is now fighting for his UFC career as another loss may get him cut from the promotion. Cody was impressive on the regional scene, going 6-0 in non-UFC related fights with five of the six fights ending by finish. For good reason, Brundage got the call to fight on DWCS against William Knight in 2020. Knight finished Brundage in the first round, knocking him out with an elbow in the clinch. Cody was still offered a chance in the UFC after winning another LFA fight following the Contender Series fight. In his UFC debut, he was matched up with Nate Diaz's prodigy and middleweight prospect Nick Maximov. Cody spent nine minutes of the bout being in bottom control, unable to find an answer for Maximov's wrestling and eventually losing the fight by unanimous decision. Brundage was then fed much weaker competition to build his confidence in the promotion. He won his next two fights in the first round, a guillotine choke submission win over Dalcha Lungiambula followed by a TKO victory over Tresean Gore. Showing he belonged in the promotion, the UFC went back to handing Brundage higher-level opponents, which has not been great for him. He was knocked out by Michal Oleksiejczuk in the first round then submitted by Rodolfo Vieira in the second, proving he was not ready for the next level of competition. The UFC has reverted back to giving him lower-level opponents, his first one coming in this fight against Sedriques Dumas who is widely inexperienced, holding an 0-1 record in the UFC octagon. In Brundage's victories, he has been successful with his wrestling, getting the fight to the ground at will but also showing some strides of improvement in his striking power on the feet. Sedriques Dumas has great skills in many areas of the fight game, holding a 7-1 professional record with four wins coming by knockout and two by submission. Dumas will have a significant seven-inch reach advantage in this bout, which he will need to use to his advantage by keeping his distance and not allowing Brundage in the pocket where he can land his powerful shots or shoot for takedowns. Although Dumas has only eight career fights as a professional, he had a somewhat lengthy amateur career, finishing 9-1 before going professional. Coming into the UFC with a lot of hype and a big favorite against Josh Fremd, UFC fans were surprised to see a lackluster performance from the newcomer, being outstruck on the feet and taken down twice in the two rounds the fight went before Fremd locked in a guillotine choke from half-guard, giving him the submission win as an underdog and taking away the zero from Dumas' previously perfect record. In this fight, Sedriques' wrestling looked very low level, being unable to defend either of Fremd's two takedown attempts and having nothing to show for when the fight got to the ground. For Dumas in this fight, he can not let Brundage get the fight to the ground early or he will have trouble getting back to his feet and will most likely find his gas tank low by the second round. If he can come out and establish a strong jab early in the fight, keeping Brundage at a distance and not allowing Brundage to get close to him, he can pull out a victory over the struggling middleweight. Having watched Dumas, however, he fights frantically and does not seem to use the necessary technique to keep this fight at a distance, making me believe Brundage will be successful in getting this fight to the ground and finishing Dumas in the second or third round.

Pick: Cody Brundage

Confidence Level: Low

Taira vs Rodriguez 125 lbs *canceled

The day begins in the flyweight division with a bout between the highly touted prospect Tatsuro Taira and Brazilian Kleydson Rodriguez. Taira began his MMA career in Japan, competing in Shooto and Vale Tudo Japan before being signed to the UFC. Taira has won all three of his UFC fights, with the most recent two ending by submission. In these fights, he has shown great skills in all areas while excelling with his submissions. In his first UFC fight against Carlos Candelario, he showed his boxing strength, scoring a knockdown in the second round. Though it seemed he had some advantage on the feet, Taira still attempted to get the fight where he is most comfortable which is on the mat. He recorded one takedown and racked up nearly seven minutes of control time due to reversals. Taira has been dominant in all of his fights, holding a 13-0 Pro MMA record with an 8-0 Amaeuter Record. His talent is off the charts, making it only a matter of time before he is fighting ranked opponents with major implications. To get there, though, he must continue winning to prove the hype is warranted. One cause of concern is his wrestling abilities. He records takedowns on only 35% of his attempts. Because his previous opponents have been at a much lower skill level, this has not affected Taira as he has found other ways to get the fight to the mat. As he climbs the ranks and faces more seasoned opponents, he must become more confident in his boxing in case he is unable to secure takedowns. Kleydson Rodriguez is a young and fairly inexperienced fighter, with only nine professional fights holding a 7-2 record. The 27-year-old entered the UFC via DWCS 2021 with a unanimous decision victory against Santo Curatolo. Kleydson dominated on the feet in that fight, landing 91 significant strikes to his opponent's 20. He has since fought twice in the UFC and has gone 1-1 with a close split decision loss to CJ Vergara followed by a first-round, 59-second KO win over Shannon Ross. Against Vergara, Rodriguez dominated the first round but fell off the following two. This raises the question of his cardio and whether he can keep up with someone who has the pace of Tatsuro Taira. He has shown great technique and power on the feet, proving he is a threat to any opponent, however, he has shown weaknesses on the ground and in the clinch, where Taira excels. I believe Taira's pace, pressure, and relentlessness will win him this fight. Vergara may have moments early in the fight boxing Taira that he must capitalize on. If this fight enters the second round, Tatsuro should be able to drag Rodriguez down and pull off a slick submission.

Pick: Tatsuro Taira

Confidence Level: High

Emmers vs Jenkins 145 lbs

The featherweight division holds a bout between "Pretty Boy" Jack Emmers and the highly talented Jack Jenkins. Emmers has a lot of MMA experience, debuting in 2012 as a professional. His pro record stands at 19-6 with losses at the hands of impressive competition in Pat Sabatini, Giga Chikadze, Julian Erosa, and Thiago Moises. Emmers beat Sandhagen early in Cory's career in LFA to take away his undefeated record. "Pretty Boy" fought another seven times after that fight before getting the call to join the UFC. One of those fights was on DWCS which resulted in a head kick KO of Emmers. Despite the loss, Emmers continued his journey putting his resilience on display. In his highly anticipated debut against another young prospect in Giga Chikadze. Once again, Emmers struggled on the big stage losing by a split decision in a fight that many believe he won. In the fight, Emmers outstruck Giga by 16 strikes overall and outstruck him in two of the three rounds while landing two takedowns and two minutes of control to Chikadze's zero takedowns and twenty seconds of total control time. It was understandable how Emmers could be upset with the result, but it showed him the only way to be sure of a win is to dominate the fight from start to finish or get a finish. In his most recent fight, he did just that, beating the previously undefeated Khusein Askhabov in dominant fashion with a 30-27 on all three judges' scorecards. Emmers more than doubled Askhabov in strikes while amounting to almost five minutes of control time. Jack Emmers is 33 years old with a ton of experience at his age, giving himself room for a lot of potential growth. Jack Jenkins has a little more than half the amount of fights as Emmers while only three years younger. The Australian Jenkins is on an eight-fight win streak dating back to 2019. He entered the UFC through DWCS in 2022 with a commanding victory over Freddy Linares. Jack put Linares away in the third with ground and pound after definitively winning the first two rounds. Jenkins accumulated 11:09 of total control of the 14:30-minute fight. 38 of his 52 significant strikes came on the ground, however, what was underutilized in that fight for him was his extremely powerful calf kicks. Before arriving in the UFC, Jenkins became known for his leg kicks which he puts every ounce of his body into. He won his 2021 Rogue MMA fight by a leg kick TKO in the second round which greatly increased his notoriety helping him get a chance on DWCS in 2022. Jack Jenkins has only gone to the decision three times in his career, one of them being in his previous fight, his UFC debut against Don Shainis. He got better as the rounds went on in that fight, having his best round in the third with 40 total strikes, two takedowns, and four minutes of control time. This fight has all the makings of a fight of the night as two of the more exciting featherweights in the division. Emmers has only lost to really good fighters, and I believe Jenkins has the potential to be one someday, but he still has a lot of room for growth and I think this matchup will be a huge test for him.

Pick: Jack Emmers

Confidence Level: Low

Peek vs Mariscal 155 lbs

To the lightweight division for another exciting fight between undefeated Trevor Peek and newcomer Chepe Mariscal. If you are interested in exciting fighters, Trevor Peek is your guy. 8-0 with eight knockout wins, having yet to reach the third round in his professional MMA career. His DWCS fight in 2022 posed the biggest threat to his undefeated record thus far. In the fight against Malik Lewis, Malik controlled the first round, landing a whopping 60 significant strikes and taking down Peek four times. Peek then of course took control from Lewis in the second round, landing 30 of his own significant strikes to Lewis' five, landing a takedown, and finishing his opponent with ground and pound. Though Peek is yet to reach the third round, this fight showed a lot from him as he was able to fight through the first-round adversity and make the necessary adjustments to finish his opponent in the second. In his first UFC fight, he took on Erick Gonzalez who was 0-2 in the UFC at the time. Peek came out firing this time, landing two knockdowns on Gonzalez with the latter one ending the fight with only one second left in the first round. Peek has proven to be a fun fighter to watch, but like most fighters, he will have to make adjustments as he continues to climb the ranks due to his poor and exposable TDD. He defends only 42% of attempts against him, and his previous two opponents have each taken him down twice. This will be a problem for him in the future as the lightweight division carries some of the best wrestlers in the world. Chepe Mariscal is yet to fight in the UFC but has faced plenty of high-level competition throughout his Pro MMA journey in a variety of promotions. Mariscal's first pro loss came in his fourth fight against the highly talented UFC fighter Gregor Gillespie in 2016 who now holds a 7-1 record in the UFC octagon. He lost another fight the following year in the V3 Fights promotion, this time to current UFC-ranked featherweight Bryce Mitchell. He then fought UFC prospects Pat Sabatini and Youssef Zalal, beating them both less than a year apart. Chepe's pro record entering the UFC is 13-6, which does not sound great until you hear the names he has fought since early in his career. Chepe will certainly be no walkover for Peek, as I expect him to put up a fight against his lesser experienced opponent. The glaring discrepancy in this fight is Peek's power. Chepe does not have the same ability to end the fight with one punch, making his safest path to victory taking his opponent down and doing his work on the ground. While Peek's past opponents have proven taking him down is highly attainable, I still believe Peek will be able to do what he needs to do to get his hand raised in this fight due to his ability to swiftly switch stances and the power he holds in both his hands.

Pick: Trevor Peek

Confidence Level: Low

Zhumagulov vs Van 125 lbs

In the flyweight division, "Zhako" Zhalgas Zhumagulov and "The Fearless" Joshua Van meet in what should be a highly competitive fight. Zhumagulov's bad luck continued having his previously scheduled bout for last week rescheduled to this week with a new opponent. Zhumagulov enters this fight having bad luck in his previous two, losing by close split decisions to Jeff Molina and Charles Johnson. His fight against Molina was widely considered a robbery as he racked up almost five minutes of control time in the first two rounds and added another 39 seconds of control in the third. Regardless of if you think he won the fight, Zhumagulov has been very unlucky recently, having bouts scheduled for UFC 288 against both Nate Maness and Rafael Estevam canceled due to complications with the opposing fighter. He even temporarily retired from MMA after his last loss to Charles due to being frustrated with the decisions made against him in his previous two fights. Finally re-entering the octagon for the first time since November 2022 and on a 3-fight losing streak, Zhumagulov will come into this fight more determined than ever to bring a victory back to his home country of Kazakhstan. Zhumagulov fights at a frantic pace, typically attempting many takedowns throughout the fight and always staying active on the feet with his striking. He saw his career high in significant strikes last fight racking up 119 over the three-round battle with Charles Johnson. He also took Johnson down once on his four attempts in the fight. While his TDA is low, the pace and quantity of attempts he takes make his wrestling a concern for whoever he fights. His opponent Joshua Van is young and fairly inexperienced, spending his entire pro career to this point in Fury FC. At 21 years old, Van quickly jumped on the UFCs radar winning five of his victories by KO/TKO while finishing his other two victories by submission. His lone loss also came by submission in 2021 to Devon Jackson in Jackson's pro debut meaning Van has yet to have a fight reach the scorecards. While his previous fight was against a fairly experienced opponent with a record of 17-9, Van's level of competition faced is questionable as his previous opponents have all suffered losses with a maximum of eight pro fights. Against his most experienced opponent, Cleveland McLean, Van was able to do damage on the feet before eventually backpacking McLean leading to a round 2 submission to claim the FFC Flyweight Championship. Van has proven to have a well-rounded game but seemed to get caught a couple times in that fight making his striking defense a possible cause for concern entering this fight. Regardless, Van has shown great power throughout his young career which can be dangerous for any opponent he faces. As for his fight against Zhumagulov, Van will need to come out fast and aggressive to keep Zhumagulov from finding his groove. Zhalgas should be able to control this fight and grind out a decision victory considering he is a much higher-level opponent than any of Van's previous fights, including his loss.

Pick: Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Confidence Level: Low

Ricci vs Robertson 115 lbs

The first women's fight of the card comes in the strawweight division between "baby shark" Tabatha Ricci and submission specialist Gillian Robertson. Ricci enters this bout on a three-fight win streak over subpar UFC competition in Maria Oliveira, Polyana Viana, and Jessica Penne. Her previous fight against Penne in March of this year was her first and only finish at the UFC level, submitting Jessica with an armbar in the middle of the second round. At only 28 years old, Ricci is surging and has the potential to continue climbing the UFC rankings with a win over a strong opponent in Gillian Robertson. Tabatha's best work comes on the ground, as she averages nearly five takedowns a fight landing them at 51% accuracy. Her game plan in this fight will be interesting, as Robertson's best work also comes on the ground with her jiu-jitsu. When two ground specialists face off, the fight often unexpectedly plays out on the feet, as neither fighter is capable of getting and keeping the other down. If Ricci is persistent on getting to the ground, this can be very dangerous as I believe Gillian is one of the scariest females in the strawweight division to grapple against considering her BJJ accolades. On the feet, Ricci has had trouble against UFC competition, landing less than 50% of her distant strike attempts and getting picked apart by Maria Oliveira until she got the fight to the mat. This is a major concern for Ricci, as Robertson is a tough opponent to fight on the ground. Robertson, like Ricci, is surging in the UFC having won her past two fights against decent competition in Mariya Agapova and previously undefeated Piera Rodriguez. In between those two fights, Robertson also competed in a Fury Pro grappling match against former champion Rose Namajunas which resulted in a rear-naked choke submission win for Gillian just 1:05 into the match. "The Savage" is also adamant about getting the fight to the ground, averaging 2.63 takedowns per fight successfully landing them at 42%. A cause for concern for Robertson in this match is her poor TDD, which stands at 25% entering the fight. Against a fighter like Ricci, she has to be more careful of her opponent's wrestling and top control. Although Gillian has the ability to perform great submissions from her back, she can not get comfortable in that position as it is tough to recover from if she is unable to lock in a submission. She must use her opponent's weakness to her advantage and land takedowns of her own, as Ricci has only defended 50% of TDA against her, being taken down in her first UFC fight against Manon Fiorot before getting knocked out by Fiorot on the feet in the second round. I believe while this fight plays out on the feet, Robertson should surprisingly have a slight advantage as Ricci has had trouble in the stand-up game in all of her fights besides her last against Jessica Penne where she recorded 15 distance strikes to Penne's 4. As far as the fight going to the ground, I believe Robertson's BJJ and fight IQ will allow her to find herself in dominant positions throughout the fight helping lead her to a win.          

Pick: Gillian Robertson

Confidence Level: Low

Rebecki vs Radzhabov 155 lbs

The next fight takes place in the lightweight division between high-level, exciting prospects in Poland's Mateusz Rebecki and Tajikstan's Loik Radzhabov. Mateusz holds a nearly perfect 17-1 professional record with fights dating back to 2014. It was not until 2022 that he got his first chance to join the UFC roster fighting Rodrigo Lidio on DWCS. In that fight, Rebecki dominated, recording two takedowns and submitting his opponent just over three minutes into the fight with a rear naked choke submission. The southpaw was unable to land either of his two significant strike attempts in the fight, but that did not seem to matter as Rebecki was able and willing to manhandle his Lidio and get the fight to the mat at will. In his UFC debut against Nick Fiore, it was more of the same from Rebecki, who accumulated three takedowns for a total of 8:27 of control time. Mateusz also showed the skills in his stand-up, landing 63 distant strikes to Fiore's 28. While his stand-up impressed many, he made it clear that his intention in the fight game is to drag his opponent down and do work on the mat, where he can best display his well-rounded jiu-jitsu and ground-and-pound game. As for Loik Radzhabov, he enters this fight coming off a win in his UFC debut over the Argentinian Esteban Ribovics who was undefeated at the time of the fight with an 11-0 record. Prior to the UFC, Loik competed in the Smart Cage under the popular MMA promotion, PFL, where he competed in two seasons, losing the latter one to Raush Manfio in the million-dollar championship fight. He was a large -280 favorite going into the fight but struggled to get the job done, losing 49-46, 48-46, and 48-46 on the three judges' scorecards collecting a 10-8 in the fourth round on two judges scorecards for his impressive round, taking advantage of a tired Radzhabov by racking up his strike count and hurting him multiple times with strikes. Loik showed his durability in this fight by not going away. Despite getting dominated in the fourth, the Tajikstanian came back and put together a solid fifth round, keeping him in the fight. Of his four career losses, he is yet to be finished, making him seemingly impossible to put away. That being said, he will now be facing the best of the best competition as he continues his UFC career and this fight against Mateusz Rebecki will be a huge test for him. If Loik can survive the onslaught from Rebecki and come out victorious, he will be a huge problem for the division as he continues his UFC career at only 32 years of age. The key for him to win this fight will be his TDD. Rebecki's plan going into this fight will be simple, take down his opponent and control him from start to finish. Knowing this, I believe Loik will be well prepared and able to stop Rebecki's takedown attempts, keeping the fight on the feet and slowly walking the Polish fighter down to collect a huge victory for his resume

Pick: Loik Radzhabov

Confidence Level: Low

Brown vs Turman 170 lbs

The first fight in the welterweight division is a fun one, between the impressive "Rudeboy" Randy Brown and "The Prodigy" Wellington Turman. Randy has been highly impressive in his MMA career, suffering losses only to some of the best in the division, including Belal Muhammad, Vincente Luque, and Jack Della Maddalena. "Rudeboy" was on a four-fight win streak in the UFC, beating Alex Oliveira, Jared Gooden, Khaos Williams, and Francisco Trinaldo putting his name at the top of the list of future ranked welterweights. He was then fed an absolute killer in Jack Della Maddalena who finished him with a rear choke submission just over two minutes into the fight. Brown used his range well and looked sharp early in the fight, landing 11 distant strikes to Maddalenas five, however, Jack's power proved to be a problem, knocking Randy down and finishing the fight on the ground. Brown is a strong striker, doing his best work on the feet utilizing his long 78" reach. Brown has had a long and successful UFC career, winning 10 of his 15 fights with his fights ending in a variety of ways. Two knockouts, three submissions, and five decisions are the method of victory for Rudeboy while his losses have also come in a number of ways, getting knocked out twice, submitted twice, and losing one on the scorecards to none other than Belal Muhammad. Brown's mix of skills makes his game plan coming into the fight questionable, which is the opposite of his opponent Wellington Turman whose strength is no secret, his BJJ. His 18-6 professional record includes eight wins by submission, while never being submitted himself. Turman is 3-4 in the UFC octagon, losing his previous fight to Andre Petroski in a fight Petroski was able to take him down eight times of his eleven attempts. Wellington's wrestling is a major concern for a fighter with great submission skills. He lands only 21% of his takedown attempts while defending only 50% of the takedown attempts against him. Prior to the Petroski fight, The Prodigy was on a two-fight win streak with victories against Sam Alvey and Misha Cirkunov. He is yet to perform well against high-level opponents, making him better served as a UFC gatekeeper than a prospect in the promotion. Considering his previous performances against mid to low-level UFC competition, I see this fight as a great opportunity for Randy Brown to get back on track and in the winning column with a strong performance against The Prodigy. 

Pick: Randy Brown

Confidence Level: High 

Magny vs Rowe 170 lbs

Staying in the welterweight division, the next bout is a fun one between the "Haitian Sensation" Neil Magny and "The Fresh Prince" Phil Rowe. Magny is a UFC veteran with 29 fights in the promotion since his debut in 2013. In that span, Neil has fought all levels of competition, from UFC newcomers to future champions. He started his career fast, jumping out to a 6-1 record in his first seven pro fights before getting the call to join season 16 of TUF. On the show, Magny went 3-1 with a win over future UFC fighter Frank Camacho in a three-round battle. Despite not winning the season, the Haitian Sensation still got an opportunity on the UFC roster. After winning his UFC debut in February of 2022, Neil then lost back-to-back fights, leading many to question if he belonged in the promotion. He quickly put an end to that debate, winning his next 7 fights convincingly with four finishes in that span including 3 KO/TKO and a rear naked choke submission. His next fight came against a surging Demian Maia in the prime of his career at UFC 190. Magny was completely outclassed in that fight finding himself unable to land a single strike during the 7:52 fight that ended in a rear naked choke submission for the Brazilian. Since then, Neil has had an up-and-down career, going into this fight with a 20-9 record in the promotion. His most dominant fight was arguably against the great Robbie Lawler. In that fight, Magny more than doubled Lawlers significant strike count while landing four takedowns and over eight minutes of control time giving him the unanimous decision nod with 30-27 scorecards from all the judges. Magny's biggest strength is his well-roundedness in all facets of the fight game. He is a tall, strong stand-up striker knocking out five UFC-level opponents in his career but has also shown great improvements in his wrestling and top control. He averages 2.4 takedowns per fight, landing at least one in most of his UFC fights, but struggling to record them against the division's best wrestlers. His opponent, Phil Rowe is much less experienced in the UFC, having only four total fights in the promotion since his debut in 2021. He was awarded a UFC contract on DWCS in 2019 in what was an exciting back-and-forth battle between Rowe and his opponent Leon Shahbazyan. In that fight, both fighters recorded a knockdown but Rowe got the better of his opponent, landing more overall significant strikes and finishing the fight in the third with a KO. Rowe struggled in his UFC debut, getting knocked down twice and losing by unanimous decision to Gabe Green. The Fresh Prince's chin and striking defense are cause for concern, as he has been knocked down three times in his UFC-related fights including contender series, and is allowing a whopping 4.97 significant strikes per minute which makes him a scary pick against any strikers that hold power in their hands. This has yet to negatively affect Rowe in the octagon as he has not been knocked out since his pro-MMA debut in 2014, but as he continues to face better competition, he will have to do better defending strikes from the big names in the division, including Magny. I expect this fight to be semi-competitive, but Neil Magny's experience and skills should be able to give him the nod in this bout.

Pick: Neil Magny

Confidence Level: Medium

Allen vs Silva 185 lbs

Onto the middleweight division for a fight between a ranked contender a one looking to enter the rankings with a win on Saturday. Number 13 ranked middleweight Brendan "All In" Allen takes on impressive prospect Bruno "Blindado" Silva in a potential fight of the night bout which will feature contrasting styles. The metrics of the two fighters are eerily similar, as Allen enters with a 21-5 record with an average fight time of 8:50. Silva's record sits at 23-8 with an average fight time of 8:10. Allen entered the UFC in 2019 and has been quite active throughout his young career. Of his eleven UFC fights, he has won nine of them with six coming by finish. His five losses have come in a variety of ways, with two by KO, one by submission, and two by decision. His only two UFC losses have come by KO, to current teammates Sean Strickland and Chris Curtis. Allen excels with his jiu-jitsu game having recorded eleven career submission victories, five of which coming in the UFC octagon. Brendan's chin, striking, and wrestling all have room for improvement which is promising considering he has gone 9-2 in the UFC with those skills not fully established. His wrestling is pivotal to his game, as his biggest strength is his jiu-jitsu which he can only utilize if he is able to first get his opponent on the ground. His takedown accuracy at just 47% is low, but yet to affect him as he has still found ways to get the fight to the ground consistently where he does his best work. His opponent Bruno Silva will do his best to avoid going to the ground in this fight. Bruno excels as a striker, with 87%, or 20 out of his 23 professional wins coming by way of knockout. Silva went 19-6 in the regional scene across a number of promotions before getting his shot in the UFC. He started his career going 3-0, defeating Wellington Turman, Andrew Sanchez, and Jordan Wright respectively. All three wins came by knockout, putting his name on the map as a contender and improving his value in the eyes of the promotion. Though it has improved since, Bruno's takedown defense was questionable in his second UFC fight, allowing Sanchez to take him down seven times on his 12 attempts. Of course, Bruno still finished the fight in the third round but considering his opponent only averages 2.55 successful takedowns per fight, this showed he may struggle against some of the top wrestlers in the division. In the stand-up Silva has greatly impressed many, using his big frame to get in the pocket and land his power shots. He was only once, however, turned into a wrestler, in his fight against one of the best kickboxers in the world Alex Pereira. Silva had no answers for Alex on the feet and attempted to take the Brazilian down eight times with two of them being successful. Besides that fight, Bruno has only shot for three career takedowns in his UFC career, with none of them being successful. He impressively survived the fight against Alex Pereira, but lost by unanimous decision, being unable to win a single round from the former champ. Bruno then suffered another loss in his next fight, being submitted by a guillotine choke in the third round. Prior to the submission, Bruno was knocked down and taken down once, allowing Meerschaert to control him for over two minutes of the fight. His two-fight losing streak was concerning, but Silva quieted the doubters in his next fight by knocking out Brad Tavares in the first round and earning a performance of the night bonus for it. Entering this fight, it is important that Bruno is able to stay on his feet and avoid Allen's inevitable takedown attempts considering Silva is 0-6 in fights that end by submission. The winner of this fight will likely be decided by the wrestling. If Allen is able to get Silva to the mat at will, he should be able to pull off a submission win or hold top control to ride out a decision victory. If Silva stuffs takedowns, however, you can expect that he will be the better striker of the two, being able to land his shots and possibly put away his opponent Allen.

Pick: Bruno Silva

Confidence Level: Low

Onama vs Santos 145 lbs

The next fight is between young up-and-coming featherweights looking to put their name on the map with a big win Saturday. David Onama and Gabriel Santos are fairly new to the UFC, with both having under five fights in the promotion. Onama, nicknamed the "Silent Assassin" has not fought in a year due to multiple scheduled bouts being canceled due to his opponents withdrawing from the bouts. Finally getting back in the octagon, Onama looks to avenge his previous loss to Nate Landwehr which came by majority decision with Landwehr dominating the second round, scoring a 10-8 on all three judges' scorecards. Onama is a fun fighter to watch, fighting at a frantic pace with great technique, helping him win six of his ten career wins by knockout. David lands 5.3 significant strikes per minute, which is highly impressive for any fighter in any division, however, he lacks in his defense, allowing opponents to land 5.75 significant strikes per minute and only defending 51% of strikes against him. In his short twelve-fight career, Onama has only had two fights reach the scorecards, both coming in the UFC. He lost both of those fights, raising questions about the level of competition faced on the regional scene. Before entering the UFC, Onama was 8-0 with five first-round finishes. His competition in those fights was inexperienced, making it surprising the UFC gave him the call straight to the promotion without competing on DWCS or TUF beforehand. In his UFC debut, Onama was taken down eight times by Mason Jones who ground out a unanimous decision victory. David looked great in his following two fights, finishing both opponents with a knockout over Gabriel Benitez and an arm triangle submission over Garrett Armfield. Onama's UFC career got off to a rocky start, but at 2-1 in his last three and only 29 years of age, there is much room and time for improvement from the Uganda-born fighter. Gabriel Santos is a true UFC newcomer, having just one fight in the promotion, at UFC 286 in March. He fought Lerone Murphy in Murphy's hometown of England, a tough fight for a young fighter looking to make an impression. Despite the loss, Santos has a lot of potential, entering the promotion with a 10-0 record. He made his way to the UFC after winning the LFA featherweight tournament championship against Jose Delano in a fight that Santos was a massive underdog in. He had one fight on the regional scene against a UFC-caliber opponent in Elves Brenner back in 2020 in the Future Fighting Championships promotion. In the 148 lbs catchweight bout, Santos came out victorious by unanimous decision. After one more fight in Future, Gabriel continued his MMA career in LFA, then got the call to the UFC. Santos is a quick and well-rounded fighter, winning his fights in every possible way with three knockouts, four submissions, and three decision victories. He will look to continue his winning ways on Saturday in what should be a fun and exciting bout between featherweight prospects. The lack of experience against high-level competition makes this fight hard to predict, but Santos' impressive performances against top LFA competition lead me to believe he has a slight edge.

Pick: Gabriel Santos

Confidence Level: Low

Tafa vs Lane 265 lbs

The only heavyweight fight on the card comes between kickboxer Justin "Bad Man" Tafa and former football star Austen Lane. The southpaw Tafa held just a 3-0 professional MMA record before making his debut in the UFC. In his debut in 2019 against Yorgan de Castro, Tafa struggled, being knocked out in the first round. He has recovered from his early career blunders and now finds himself on a two-fight win streak, with first-round knockout wins over Harry Hunsucker and Parker Porter raising his UFC record to 3-3. Tafa is a pure striker with a clear game plan every time he enters the octagon, knock out his opponent. Tafa earned one bonus in his career for his fight of the night against Jared Vanderaa. He lost the fight, but the entertaining bout went the distance in a fun back-and-forth battle between the heavyweights granting Tafa $50,000. Justin's stand-up is semi-strong, having a kickboxing background but his skills are not good enough to climb the rankings in the division. His main issue is his lack of skills on the ground. His takedown defense of 100% shows he has great at not letting the fight get there, but against the better wrestlers it is inevitable that they will drag him down. In that situation, he must be able to scramble out of the dangerous position and rise back to his feet or else he will be finished swiftly. Austen Lane comes into this fight with a considerable height and reach advantage of 6" each. Despite this advantage, Austen still often weighs in for his heavyweight fights lighter than his opponent Tafa, at 245 lbs compared to Tafa who fights near the heavyweight limit at 264 lbs. Tafa is an exciting fighter to watch in the stand-up, being capable of knocking out any opponent that steps in the octagon with him. Austen Lane is a complete newcomer to the UFC, making his debut Saturday against Tafa. The 5th-round NFL draft pick in 2010 called it a career in 2015 after five seasons in the NFL playing 30 games and making 66 tackles. He pursued his MMA career shortly after, making his pro debut in 2017 after two years of amateur fights racking up a 5-0 record. After becoming 4-0 as a pro, Lane got a chance in the UFC against another former football star, Greg Hardy on DWCS in 2018. Austen was unable to show most of his skills in that fight, with it lasting less than a minute due to Greg Hardy knocking out Lane. Austen's stand-up style is funky, using his height and long reach to his advantage by keeping his distance from his opponent and throwing big power shots over the top. Lane did not earn a UFC contract for his KO loss on DWCS, so it was back to the drawing board for him. He went 7-2 in his next nine fights, winning the Fury FC heavyweight championship, and earning another fight on DWCS four years later. Austen took on the tall and undefeated prospect, Richard Jacobi, in a fight that only lasted 4:34 with Lane finishing his opponent, Jacobi, by ground and pound giving him the TKO victory and earning a contract with the UFC. The concern for Austen Lane is the lack of professional experience and winning out of his past opponents. The most winning fighter he has faced in his career won only eight pro fights, and many of his opponents sport weak or losing overall records, making it seem his journey to the UFC was not all that difficult, and he will now have trouble competing with the top heavyweights in the world. Though he has the power to knock most fighters out, his striking accuracy needs improvement if he wants the chance to knock out the bigger names in the division. Tafa will be his first UFC-level Southpaw opponent, raising the question of how he performs against fighters of that stance and if he will feel comfortable in the octagon against a powerful lefty. I believe Lane has the potential to win a few fights in the UFC, but he will suffer quite a few losses along the way as he is still fairly inexperienced for a UFC heavyweight.     

Pick: Justin Tafa

Confidence Level: Medium

Ribas vs Barber 125 lbs

Brazil's Amanda Ribas faces off against "The Future" Maycee Barber in the women's flyweight division. Ribas is a successful UFC fighter, sporting a 6-2 record in the promotion and holding the number 9 ranked spot in the UFC women's flyweight division. Her UFC wins have come against very impressive competition in Mackenzie Dern, Virna Jandiroba, and Viviane Araujo. Ribas is a well-rounded fighter, with strength in her stand-up, but does her best work on the ground with her submission game. She does fairly well getting the fight where she wants, successfully landing 2.16 takedowns per fight at a takedown accuracy rate of 52%. The more impressive aspect of her wrestling has been her takedown defense, stuffing a whopping 88% of attempts against her. Facing a wrestler in Viviane Araujo in her previous fight, Ribas showed off her stand-up striking, landing 93 strikes at a distance to her opponent's 45. Of course, Ribas still successfully brought the fight to the ground twice, where she was most comfortable, tallying 8:20 of control time in the bout. Ribas' striking defense has also grown as one of the most important parts of her game. She eats only 2.65 significant strikes per minute from opponents, defending 69% of strikes against her. Her striking offense is impressive but lacks the necessary power to knock out her opponents. Landing strikes at only 42% is not all that impressive, but considering she is still landing 4.8 significant strikes per minute despite landing at a low accuracy shows she fights at a great pace with a ton of stamina and strong aggression from start to finish. In the end, Ribas is the most successful against fighters with weaker wrestling, where she can take her opponent down and work on her submission game. Maycee Barber enters the fight on a 4-fight win streak, beating strong opponents in former ranked star Miranda Maverick and current 13-ranked flyweight Andrea Lee. Maycee, unlike her opponent, does her best work in the stand-up, being willing and confident against any top strikers in the division. Her UFC losses have come at the hands of Roxanne Modafferi and current champ Alexa Grasso. Both fighters implemented the same game plan against Barber, take her down and hold her on the mat to grind out a unanimous decision victory. Since those losses, Barber has looked great but still struggles with her takedown defense, stuffing only 47% of attempts against her and being unable to stop any of Andrea Lee's five takedown attempts against her in her last fight. Though she came out victorious by split decision, she can not rely on her ability to get back to her feet after being taken down, and must rather not let her opponents get her down in the first place. Against a strong wrestler like Ribas who has great top control, Barber can not get taken down early in each round or else it will be a long day in the office for her. I believe Ribas' wrestling will help her dominate this fight, pulling out a submission or unanimous decision victory.

Pick: Amanda Ribas

Confidence Level: Medium

Emmett vs Topuria 145 lbs

The main event is between featherweight contenders and future title challengers Josh Emmett and Ilia Topuria. Josh Emmett is the far older fighter in the bout, at 38 years old and sporting an 18-3 professional record. Ilia is only 26 years of age, with a perfect 13-0 record, making his way to the top of the rankings incredibly fast for any fighter no matter the division. Emmett finds himself ranked #5 in the featherweight division, coming off a loss to Yair Rodriguez in what was a title-eliminator fight. Prior to the loss, Emmett was surging and on a five-fight win streak, with wins over great competition in Michael Johnson, Shane Burgos, Dan Ige, and Calvin Kattar. Josh's biggest strength is his striking power, winning six of his professional fights by knockout. He also has impressive stamina, fighting his best rounds in the latter moments of the fight. He was unable to show off his stamina in his bout against Yair which was scheduled for five rounds but only went two, with Yair submitting Emmett late in the second round. Emmett is known for putting on fun, high-level, back-and-forth fights between top contenders in the division, but in this bout against the powerful and dangerous Ilia Topuria, he must be more cognizant of not entering the danger zone or getting into a back-and-forth battle because Topuria's power is far more than his, and one shot from the Georgian can put his lights out. He must rather pick his shots more carefully and not be the frantic fighter he is used to being. Ilia's head movement and ability to avoid big punches are sturdy, defending 62% of strikes against him, near the top of the division of current UFC fighters. Parlaying this stat with the fact Emmett lands only 37% of his significant strike attempts predicts this will be a tough fight for him, being unable to find his range and land strikes for the greater portion of the early rounds of the fight. For Josh to win the fight, he must play the fight slow and come out strong in the third, fourth, and fifth rounds of the fight, where Ilia does not have much experience due to the fact he often finishes his fights in the first or second rounds. Topuria is a highly touted UFC prospect, having slick, powerful striking that has helped him put away four opponents in his pro-MMA career by KO/TKO. Along with his striking, he holds a BJJ black belt with very high-level jiu-jitsu skills, winning eight of his thirteen fights by submission. Only one of his career fights has gone the distance, his UFC debut bout against Youssef Zalal in what was a fairly close unanimous decision win for Ilia. Zalal landed more strikes than Ilia, but Topuria secured at least one takedown in each round and gathered over eight minutes of control time by the end of the fight. Since that fight, Ilia won his next four fights much more convincingly, finishing all his opponents including the ranked and previously undefeated Bryce Mitchell who has had a lot of hype over the years. What makes Ilia so tough to fight is his strengths in all facets of the fight game, being able to knock out any opponent on the feet, but also feeling most confident on the ground where he can show off his BJJ skills which are near the top of the UFC as a whole, not just for his division. As stated earlier, Emmett must be very careful when entering the danger zones in this fight as Ilia can very quickly turn his lights off, but being that Topuria's stamina is widely unknown for the most part due to his fights almost always ending inside the distance, and never competing in a five-round fight, there is certainly an avenue for Emmett to win by grinding out the first couple of rounds and coming alive in the latter ones when Topuria becomes gassed.

Pick: Ilia Topuria

Confidence Level: Medium